Dr. Roubini's prediction

..Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Is Unfolding Now




By Ansuya Harjani
CNBC – Mon, Jul 9, 2012 6:49 PM SGT

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"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China.

In May, Roubini predicted four elements - stalling growth in the U.S., debt troubles in Europe, a slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and military conflict in Iran - would come together in to create a storm for the global economy in 2013.

"(The) 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding," Roubini said on Twitter on Monday.
Chinese inflation data released on Monday, suggested that the economy is cooling faster than expected, while employment data out of the U.S. on Friday indicated that jobs growth was tepid for a fourth straight month in June.
Roubini said that unlike in 2008 when central banks had "policy bullets" to stimulate the global economy, this time around policymakers are "running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat."
Policy easing moves by the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) last week did little to inspire confidence in global stock markets.

"Levitational force of policy easing can only temporarily lift asset prices as gravitational forces of weaker fundamentals dominate over time," he said.

Bill Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, agrees that there is little central banks can do arrest the global slowdown.

Last week, he told CNBC that there is "virtually zero chance" that pump-priming by central banks will succeed, suggesting that policymakers should instead let the economic bust work itself through the system.

The Perfect Storm

    Yesterday, I went for the Morgan Stanley Investor talk at Ritz Carlton for investors with the bank, at the invitation of my friend, Mr. Roland Teo. In it, there were speeches from expert investment bankers covering the EU. Asian and American economies. Judging from their comments, the perfect storm is approaching the worldwide marketplace, and unless some major new business idea or product captures the world's consumers, we are in for a dreary, or several quarters of economic decreases, ie. recession.It might be even longer than 3 quarters, what with Singapore being such an open and vulnerable economy and it hasn't a large enough population to sustain and grow startups to the size of huge or even mid sized countries like Thailand or Indonesia. We always have to startup, and migrate the model overseas in order to achieve a sustainable revenue stream for the long run.

     I said the 'R' word, and in a nutshell, the Asian region (excluding China) has decreasing exports to the EU, decreasing exports to the US and decreasing exports to China. So what does one do, in the age of uncertainity ? Hide one's head in the ground like the ostrich and wait for the economies to tank, not spend anything and live like a hermit ? One can be tempted to think and do so, but think about it, the world is based on laissesz faire economic principles of demand and supply, so if there is no or ever shrinking demand, then supply will shrink, and suppliers will wind up or go bust, banks would not be able to end, and prices will rise, leading to even lower demand, and hence an 'cycle of doom'.

      There must be some forward thinking, development of new platforms for the marketplace of billions, the last being the Social Media, before that was the handphone explosion, and even before that was the Dotcom boom and bust. So, what is the NEXT BIG THING ?

      Perhaps as my friend, Tom Gan, put it, it could be the unveiling of 2 key  entertainment devices,

a) Ultrabooks

b) Iphone 5 

       Will the world wind down with the possible unravelling of the EU ? When will the contagion hit the Asian economies, will China experience a hard or soft landing ? Will India be the next global growth engine or not ? Will there be a Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3) ?

       I don't have the answers, as the Governments of the world are doing all they can to shore up funds to help the banks,and lower interest rates, so as to ensure liquidity in the market. But this will only stave off a bigger economic calamity because all bonds and IOUs eventually have to be paid, with interest, and the debt ties everybody in one way or the other.

       In my opinion, the next year or 2 will be the most challenging ever faced by the South East Asian regions economically. So, we all have to be adaptable and survive in this perfect storm. My guess is to minimise debt, borrowings, continue business in whatever way to survive and seize good bargains as and when the sxxx hits the fan.

      Ths Chinese coin the word 'wei qi' as crisis, inside the word, there is 'ji' which is short form for 'ji huei'  or opportunity. So look for the opportunity in the crisis, and take the hits as and when they come.

      Seize the Opportunity ! 

      

    

Doobie Brothers Classic

One of their best from the late 70s and early 80s when Michael McDonald was the lead singer. Great song, a classic from 'my time' as a teenager and young man. That was like ages ago !

Great song which played by the new Doobie brothers still sounds as great today as it was 30 over years ago. Enjoy this one.

Shelter from the Storm - Bob Dylan ; the man himself

Classic song with awesome lyrics. One of my favourite Dylan songs performed by the man himself.

Happy Father's Day ; 17th June

Each year, we remember the people who have given so much to us, in particular my parents.

I wish to remember my father, Geoffrey Abishgegananden who  was such a good man, helping many people pro-bono (without charge) in his legal firm as well as all the clubs and societies he was in charge of. A devout man of God, he would faithfully attend St. Andrew's Cathedral every Sunday and sing and worship at the 11.00 am Church Service. His magnificent spirit, humility, and generosity has my admiration till this day. Happy Father's Day Papa. You must be happy in heaven with all your brothers and sister. Your son, Love, Mark



Payphone Maroon 5

Great song, but really a meaningless video. Watch it and see for yourself

Coldplay - Hurts like Heaven

Excellent live performance by Coldplay again, from their latest album Paradise.