Sapiens - Harari's Conclusion - An anchor shaped world

 

This is the conclusion of Noah Yuval Harari's best selling book Sapiens. He wrote it in 2011 and barely 13 years later, what I am seeing and have put into a simple diagram as above is this.

There are a small class of elites who manage the large corporations and their rank is growing. The Baidus, BYD, Tiktok, MetaAI, ChatGPT owners, the Musks, the Zuckerburgs, the Gates you get the point.  The new rich who easily rake in billions in a span of maybe 5 to 10 years. They will then invest their profits into the next asset classes such as high end properties and AI.

In the middle, the middle class are thinning out. The rise of AI and the AI agents have displaced many copywriters, editors, clerical and admin assistants, finance assistants, front desk and front line workers. The gig economy is being replaced by reliable drones, robots, non complaining, non politicking non breakdown and non MC applying bots. No need for human faces and front desk people.

The millions of Grab, Uber, Lyft and Didi drivers will be left without an income in the next 10 years. Assets like property which have been spiralling since the COVID days are way out of the spending league of the gig economy workers.

The big problem is then, what do these people who have been disenfranchised, dispossessed and edged out from whatever there was available in terms of work, work as ? To make things worse, if they have committed to buying a property be it a Government subsidised flat or private property and have a huge outstanding mortgage without a long term job or outlook, this will be a great impact to 

a) resale property market prices

b) the property market's index or benchmark price range which will fall, and in theory everyone will be poorer. 

There will be untold millions and possibly billions of people all over the world who will be affected in this manner in the coming decade.

What is the Government's solution to this projected problem ? 

Watch this blog for updates. 

 

Happy 60th Birthday - Welcome to the Club

Well here you are at 60 years of age. We have come a long long way, from the image of a very tearful Mr. Lee Kuan Yew who on TV announced the formation of a brand new country who had practically no resources except for the brilliant vision, grit and never say die attitude of the founding father group of Mr Lee and his nexus of leaders, guided this small city with a deep water port into a metropolis with one of the world's highest GDP per capita PPP in a short 50 years.

What we have achieved in these 60 years is nothing short of an economic miracle. The envy of many worldwide, from the West to the East. A shining example how a small country can move from 3rd world to first world in a generation, the fact that Singapore exists and continues to thrive just goes to show that it can be done.

Key success factors for our miracle

1. Brilliant bold and leadership formented by action and enacting laws, many of them deemed 

    as very strict and almost draconian but they cleaned up and actually impacted the greater 

    society at large.

2. A hardworking population founded on the principles of :

(a) meritocracy

(b) honesty and incorruptibility

(c) hard work 

(d) multiple language fluency 

     (all Singaporeans learn at least 2 languages, English and the mother tongue from Pri One all the way to Pre- University) 

(e) Ethnic harmony

(f)  Religious harmony 

(g) Adherence to the Rule of Law

To be very honest, to achieve this at all levels of society was and still is a work in progress, BUT we are viewed by a great many countries as both a success in the realm of a highly developed economy with capitalist fundamentals and also as a progressive socialist society.

Our leaders need to continue forging new partnerships in trade, tourism and manage new citizen and permanent residency arrivals with a firm yet patient touch.

With the new tariff laws flying left right centre since DT took office, the Asian region is still rather shell shocked as to how to position business strategies since businesses depend on 

a) consistency on trade policy

b) stable government and its direction for at least the next 20 years

with everything else being equal Ceterus Parebos, how Singapore will move forward for the next 5 to 10 years 

I wish the 4G the best of times, we are with you, but do not let us down. 

 

 

The Foolish Run - a Repost of my post of 20 November 2012.

First published in Nov 2012 - some 13 years ago ! from this blog. I thought to refresh and reread some of my more interesting posts  from the past.   I was around 50 years of age at the time of writing in Nov 2012. 

I will always remember this run today for a long long time. Today, as I was preparing for the 42km marathon in roughly 2 weeks' time, I decided to take a challenge and run with a new pair of Asics Kayanos (version 18). I decided to run the Sime Trail at the McRitchie Reservoir which is roughly 11km from start to end, 1 complete circle. 

       I am not a novice at running the trails at McRitchie, but as I finished the run, something so significant dawned upon me, that I decided to write this down for posterity. I finished work before 6pm and made a beeline for McRitchie reservoir hoping to catch the last rays of light. By the time I arrived and changed up, and started out, it was 6.30pm. I did the run which was in the jungle, and not uncommonly, I would see moneys, sometimes monitor lizards and the occasional snake. The first half went by quite smoothly. I covered 7km in about 42 minutes or so, at a decent pace of 6min per km. My new shoes were absorbing the shocks of the uneven ground made worse by the rains the past days. There are many exposed roots and its slippery,so one wrong move and you could end up with a twisted ankle or worse, a major leg or body injury. The trail is meant mainly for walkers and people with trail sticks frequent it.
Some weeks ago some trail runners were lost in the Reservoir for up to 9 hours, so its not without its risks.

         I made it to the 2/3 rd mark at about 7.05pm. The ranger station was closed and a sign said that the treetop walk was closed and not open to public after 5.30pm  I was left with 3 options a) use the Sime road, which was well lit and run the remainder 5 km back b) Head back the way I came, which was quite treacherous with the fading light or c) continue with the Sime Trail into the forest and reach the end by sheer foolishness and willpower. That meant running up 9 small hills in the trail which was pot holed, and had mud as well as broken stones placed over the places where it was too muddy. Tough choice. 

        I chose option c). Purely by 'gut feel' and not logic, when I could have chosen the easy way back and ran along the road to the start point. With the light fading, the trail I was quite familiar became a black or near black track, with the occasional light from the opening of the forest which let the moonlight in from the half moon. I was afraid, but chose to press on into the darkness. The trail had its ups and downs, and pot holes, which I had to FEEL MY WAY through. I was scared to be scared, not wanting to think of the consequences of a wrong footing or  going off the track. There were lights but I realised that they were fireflies in the forest. After about 15 minutes  of solitary running in the darkness, there was a torchlight and one runner came towards me, he greeted me, and passed into the night. I felt much more sure. There was another solitary runner about 5 minutes later who greeted me with a hearty "Hi" and I was so energised, I ran with all my might. It was going to be OK, although I had another good 15 minutes still in the black forest.

        At the end of the trail, the lights of the reservoir beckoned. My thoughts during the run were this :

1. I am a risk taker, that is why I decided to go into business. You are always thrust into the great abyss (black hole) of uncertain future but you must have the extreme confidence that you will overcome whatever comes my way.

2. Do not think too much about the what ifs, because, life is real short, and if you spend too much time thinking about things you will never ever achieve anything.

    My run finished rather unspectacularly by the reservoir's edge. I remember the words immortalised by the late Steve Jobs to the new Harvard graduands.

   " Stay Foolish, Stay Hungry, Never Settle".

   Well, the first 2 I have achieved with 100% accuracy. That is why I am still making a living running my own business. I have never regretted a single day of it. Never settle means that I must aspire for better than what I have achieved today. That will only be known over time.

   Seize the Day my friends.   


     
    
    
             

Financial Literacy and Financial Prudence should be taught in school

One of the biggest preconceptions in many people's lives in Singapore is this. Are there traditional jobs 'out there' now and in the future ? We are experiencing a classic Paradigm Shift - a change of gears in the working world and it is accelerating change in so many ways which we are even not aware of. 

Jobs from just 25 to 30 years ago all gone or going the way of the dinosaur.

1. Car park attendant

2. Front desk receptionist

3. Sales people (telecoms and all high technology products)

4. Cashier at markets and supermarkets

5. Serving and wait staff

6. Drivers and cheuffers

7. Chefs (think central kitchens)

8. Housing agents

9.  Call in service people 

10. Retail (think Best Denki) sales staff. 

11. Bank tellers

12. Foodcourt cleaners 

13. Front desk admin people of clinics and hospitals

The Gig economy is a transient one, in preparation when the driverless vehicles for people (read MRT trains, Grab and Grabfood) fast become the norm.

Lets look at life just 25 years ago, in the early 2000s. Here was the dream...

You are born, you enjoy your childhood, go to school, study hard, play sports, go to junior college, University, possibly do a Post Graduate degree come out to the working world, enter the workforce, start dating settle down, purchase a flat or a condominium have kids etc etc. and move up to the world.  This view I believe is long gone. 

Now, in the first quarter of the 21st century, the whole of society is thrown into disarray with the rise of Artificial Intelligence or AI (the Terminator series in the late 1980s to early 2000s was an ominious foreboding of the dark chilling future with the rise of the machines - or is it still just a(n) (Aluminium) pipe dream

This whole perception or global construct of the Good Life, well its degenerated now to a view which is just a matter of existence and living however well you can. Assets like flats and private condominiums are still continuing their relentless rise upwards while salaries remain stagnant or inch upwards.  Job security from companies are at best, very patchy. Companies start up and go bust very frequently. 

Property can make someone wealthy ? Think again. Its not a never ending upward cycle.

Flats (new BTOs) and private estate condominiums currently (2025) continue to hold firm and continue inching up. An HDB 4 room which  to cost something like S$ 200, 000 back in the 1990s now cost close to or over $ 1 million in mature estates. The lease decay of 99 years is a wake up call that after a certain time, these same flats will see their prices drop when the remaining lease is less than 35 to 40 years. So, in essence, any flat with an age of roughly 59 years will NOT be granted mortgage loans. There are some flats at Stirling Road which are 55 years of age, so technically if they are resold, in my opinion a couple of things will happen 

a) price will drop or have dropped drastically from the peak 

b) those who had bought these flats at certain dates or times, MAY have actually lost money on these flats.

A check on Property Guru shows that a 2 bedroom, 3 room flat built in 1970,(55 years old) is going for a whopping $400, 000. For easy calculation, say the lease is 95 years (it is actually 99). That is $10,000 depreciation per year for 40 years of 'purchase'. The value becomes 0 at that point (40 years later) in 2065. 

If someone decides to buy for his himself or his parents this 3 room resale flat will technically lose $400, 000 if they see out the remaining 40 years of the lease.

There will be MORE and MORE of such flats in 10 years time. What will we see ? Potentially a glut of properties being sold on the market as more people downgrade, due to lease decay, job loss, business failure and all manner of people needing money. When supply increases exponentially, demand remains more or less the same or drops (our TFR is well below 0.97, well below the replacement rate of 2.1), well, the sale price must fall. Economics 101. 

Prices will drop. The returns back to the CPF will be less, more will potentially have less than  what they originally had.  

No one told the Singaporeans the Hard Truths which will come.

Iron Rice Bowl ? Jobs for Life ? No 

There are no jobs for life, firms in STEM (Science Tech Engineering and Mechanical) are evolving every 5 years, and only those that adapt fast enough can and will make it. The traditional model of the hard earnest worker in the 20th century workforce is sadly dying out fast.

People need to find work which pays well, be it cybersecurity, some banking, supply chain, advanced remanufacturing, Government service, the options are shrinking for our pool of graduates (not to mention non graduates). Do our leaders have a good solution to this ??? 

Financial Literacy and Financial Prudence - suffer early to make good later. 

Learn financial literacy. This is really the game changer. Even more crucial, Financial Prudence, many of us are just one health, physical, work or travel crisis away from a disaster.

And we are blissfully ignorant about our plight. The height of (financial) stupidity or Dunning Kreuger syndrome, we are too stupid to know we are making stupid financial decisions day in and day out of our lives. And we continue to do so blissfully ignorant and cursing everybody from the Government, the good Man upstairs, and the people around us. When in actual fact is the culprit is US.  

Learn to invest and yes try our hand in equities, bonds, property, blockchain, cryptocurrency.

Try starting a small business. Fail early and learn. try again. 

There will be some failures, some learning lessons, but only through losing and feeling the pinch will there truly be growth and understanding on HOW to build that nest egg.

We are all living in a world where the cost of living is gradually rising, ever so slightly that we do not take notice, then one day WHAM we are caught with cash illiquidity, or no significant assets in place. The prawns in the pot slowly get cooked to boiling.  

We will then be like the many millions in the West, just existing day in day out, working like 8 to 10 hours and just paying bills and getting by with no happy retirement in sight.

The reality is closer than we think it is.  

 

Thoughts on a Lazy Sunday 3rd August 2025

 

I ran a determined 8K yesterday  

Here we are again, dear readers from all over the world. In Singapore which is +7 GMT it is 1:02 pm (Greenwich is 6.02 am) Sunday 3rd August 2025. This time will never pass again, so I had better seize the moment and write some of my thoughts for this week ahead.

As we go along in life, living quietly in our little realities, living and acting our roles as parents, grandparents, relations, friends, children and acquaintences, lets remind ourselves. 

"Live the best version of ourselves" . These include the below value points.

 There are many more value points which I have not covered :

1. Not complaining

2. Showing Up when necessary

3. Being Responsible

4. Being Accountable

5. Leading

6. Guiding

7. Helping

8. Saying the Right Things when needed

9. Taking a Stand

10. Be Here 

Its well and good wanting to make more money or getting more done before we get too old. But I think the bottom line is this 

" Ask what you can do for society and those around you" 

Do not be an observer and take videos of the 'unjust' and be a keyboard warrior. There are millions upon millions of nobodies doing that in the world nowadays.

Do something good.   

Be a Hero 

- to your children and grandchildren

- to your loved ones

- to your cherished friends and close family

For when the time comes when I am physically gone from this earth, I hope some of them will remember me fondly and tell stories of the times when I actually came to their aid and I gave back my appreciation to them in time, in money, in friendship, in experience and mentoring  and the sharing of my life lessons with no expectation of anything but to see the effect I had on helping others. 

That to me is the real meaning of life. 

The Lane Cutters - Kiasu and Kiasi

The 3 ultimate peeves for me as far as living in Singapore are these : 

1.  The stifling heat and humidity which will hit you upon arrival (by plane / ship). 

2.  Lane Cutters on our roads

3.  The Costs of Car and Home ownership

Point 1 and 3 there isn't much we can do about it. 

Point 1 - Heat and Humidity 

The heat and humidity in Singapore has been known for decades, and it is exacerbated by  global warming. I intend to read more, much more on that and post my little anecdotes and simple ways which as a citizen, I can and will make a difference.

Point 3 - Car and Home Ownership 

This is again falls in our Government's purview and these ministers and highly paid civil servants have to make it their agenda to help Singaporeans cope with these 2 largest items in every citizen's radar. A home to settle down, raise a family and access to owning a car, at least for a certain time in his or her life. These costs should not be over burdensome, as we are all well aware.

Point 2 - Lane Cutters - Driver or Passenger to blame ?

I hate queue jumpers with a vengeance. A lot of these people are providing Ride Hailing service and they may claim they are rushing from point A to point B, but IF they had planned their routes in advance and use the Google Maps, there is no need to rush. No one wants to jam brake just as the car in front moves from his lane to yours. 

The situation is made worse when we have never ending road works in many parts of this island. So what was once an 3 lane semi expressway, becomes a 2 lane or even 1 lane start stop jaunt, flaring up many motorists at all times of day. 

Really, as an observation of life in Singapore, while it may get stressful at times, we need to cherish the time and our transportation planning can be made most seamlessly if everybody played their part by 

a) planning their trips with ample time to get to their destination.

b) telling the Grabcar and Taxi driver to not rush to the destination.

I hope this post reminds us that if we rushed through our lives, aiming to to earn the big bucks  by providing Grab and other Ride Hailing services, IF it comes at the the expense of our sanity or (even worse), we get involved in car accidents in our haste, then it would all come to nothing or even, as a result, we get a terrible driving record and possibly some jail time.

Its not worth it. 

Just my 2 cents  

It best to leave some friendships behind.

Deep Fried Calamari Rings 

Location :Scaled Restaurant, 8 Hamilton Road

Singapore 209179 

At this stage in my life where the number of years left are far less than the number of years I have lived, I can say that to be truly emancipated, I need to let go of certain friendships, and relationships. While its good to have a circle of friends, the true friends are those that stand up and be counted when the chips are down for me and you. Hence, we must be mindful of these people and discard the ones who are just :

a) good time drinking buddies or mates (some even from school)

b) mutual interest friends

c) relatives (yes)

It is a revelation to me that after so many years, I can be cognizant of who are my true friends and those who are just best left to meet once in a blue moon, maybe never again. An example is this : lets say I write up an article and I want some honest reviews for my 22 year 'baby', say my business . I send out a simple request with a link to friends and family. It only takes 5 to maximum 10 minutes of their time to fill up a simple questionnaire and review it. No money is transacted or requested, just some time and an honest review.

Some friends respond practically immediately. I am so thankful for these mates. Some say yes and do it a day or two later. Some receive the the simple request and say "yes". Some receive it and don't bother.

I would like to address the last group, the list of friends who receive the requests and don't bother helping in the slightest way - by filling up a simple 5 minute review. These people know me, my company, the products and services we provide very well over these years. 

Seabass Pate with Sourdough Bread, Caramalised Onions 

Location : Scaled Restaurant, 8 Hamilton Road. 

Singapore 209179

The reality of it all is that some friends are just 'free loaders'. They just want the nice free meals and time companionship without any of the responsibility (if any) or accountability. If the responsibility is just 5 minutes of their time, and they can't even fulfil that, when we have come and met multiple times, perhaps its better to relook into the semantics of that friendship and perhaps back off. These are what I would call, the 'entertainers', the people who make me 'feel like I am part of a bigger group' of like minded people. BUT they are fake. And I do know my fair share of fake friends. Thankfully I have sifted through my friends list and have been a lot more discerning. 

They have 0 interest in your well being or your person. Why do I even bother to meet with them let alone do things with them ? Of course you will accuse me of being selfish, and only taking the approach by assessing "What can you do for me" first - hence we can be friends. It should be ideally a pure connection, that when the time comes (good AND bad) we stand up for each other - though no one is counting the number of times it happens, right ?  

 Sweet Cheeks Biscotti Chocolate Ice Cream 

147 Tyrwhitt Road

Singapore 207561

So, the bottom line for me is this. I am my own man. I have family, relatives, friends, acquaintences and associates - and then some. There will be people who don't like me, envy me, say bad thigngs behind my back. There are those who if not for monetary gain, wouldnt drop in on FB, Linked In, Whatsapp and say 'hello' to me. There are those 'freeloaders' who if not for a free meal, wouldn't help me in any way.

Its time I said "Bye Bye " to these Useless Deadbeats. The list is pretty long. .I am fortunate that the true friends list is just as long, so it equals up. 

Seize the Day - and with people who mean something to me - now and always.