Monday, February 3, 2020

Bill Gates No Less Said This at a TED Talk in 2015




The key and sad point of all this chest beating and reflection is this, if the people in authority watch this and did nothing, it is indeed a calamity indeed. The fact that Bill Gates no less a person with great standing as a thinker, entrepreneur and philantrophist foretold of this calamity in 2015, (Coronavirus outbreak which is now a Global Health Emergency) and since then, there seemed to be little done globally.  Countries coming together and partnering to form some kind of international 'ringfence' or working together in this regard (to contain the outbreak) still seems quite disjointed or piecemeal. 

I am glad Singapore's response and readiness to act has been up to expectations.  We have learnt well from the painful lessons of SARS some 17 years ago. 

I know and pray that the world's epimediologists are working round the clock to a) contain the spread b) provide prompt and proper medical care to the sick and suspected sick and c) racing against time to find a vaccine. China at the epicentre, needs all the help it can from the world's medical community to firstly fight and contain the spread, and secondly bring it under control. The painful lessons of SARS seem to be recurring again, much to the whole world's anguish and concern. 

Some trends seem to emerge. (I call them trends as they are not yet fully verified as 'facts').

1. The virus is pretty contagious. It is air borne, possibly water droplets and even through tears.

> Latest Update (22 March) : To date, the disease is a GLOBAL PANDEMIC, with over 230,000 and over 10,000 dead. New information of the deadly virus :



2. People who have the virus are contagious, even when they show little or no signs and thus can be mobile and pass it to people they come into immediate contact with.

3. China has sent the genetic data of the virus to WHO and as a result some countries including Singapore have isolated and created the exact replica of the current strain of the Novel CoV -19. Their openness for sharing with the world this data is to be lauded. 

"If you know your enemy and its intentions, you can find the path to defeat it.  "

3. The death rate based on the number of cases in total, seem lower than the other more severe pandemics like SARS, MERS and Ebola. However, this is not conclusive at this juncture.

4. Thailand is the first nation at this point to 'cure' a patient who is 71 with a cocktail of 'flu vaccines, SARs and HIV. While this is excellent news, the combination is probably still too expensive and not easily reproducible at this point. Reference to this article in Fortune below link : 
   
https://fortune.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-treatment-thailand


5. We will beat this virus over time, the only critical issue at this point is to ensure that the Co - R (or rate of infections per cycle) is reduced drastically. The only way is to identify early the victims, give them the best quality medical care and facilities while the people they have come into contact should be kept under quarantine for further observation.

For Singapore, my guess is that most of the victims should recover, if not all.

For the rest of us  Lets Keep Calm and Carry On

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