Dunning Kreuger - Height of Ignorance and Stupidity - My Own Experience.

 

Many of you would have heard of the Dunning Kreuger effect, or the height of stupidity. Essentially this is the peak of Mount Stupid. You do not even know what you don't know.

I know personally of people who are so ignorant and stupid, yet overstate their abilities until they fall flat on their face, that is when they receive a 'wake up' call that they are out of their league, and maybe then, they will learn from their mistakes.

I had a period where I thought, I knew everything there was to know in the environmental simulation industry and ventured in project management without the proper tools to weather

a) delayed deadlines

b) unfulfilled deliverables

c) very unreasonable customers

d) arrogant procurement 

e) rude top management.

In short, I was ignorant and rather stupid to believe that with a little knowledge and many years of experience, my team and I would be able to weather all the storms of project delivery and compliance.

I also trusted too much on outsource equipment suppliers without proper audit of their full facilities, so the result of the 2 projects which my company secured (each project worth was over S$ 1.2 million at the time of order) was :

> 1 delivered on time, specifications met and slight delay in payment

> 1 delivered on time, specifications not fulfilled, numerous redesigns, numerous meetings and thrash outs, many sleepless nights and liquidated damages, resulting in lower profit margins, weight loss and some mental distress for several months.

That was my Mt. Stupid period (2015-2016). I went to the valley of despair ( end 2015-mid 2016), my other business units were all shut to focus on settling the major project, else, the result would have been catastrophic and business closure, possibly company bankrupcy. 

We made out of it scarred but unbowed. The experience was put to great use, and we went on as a company to deliver many more such systems worldwide.

The slow climb up was arduous, but it was necessary - for me as a person and also for the company.

The lessons learnt ?

Never ever think you are invincible and know more than everyone. Now, I use these strategic steps ever so often in my daily work :

>Under Commit 

- Never give the whole performance away, if its at the edge of the technology spectrum, always talk through the expectations with the customer and try to lower them. It sounds counterproductive as technology always is pushed to the boundaries thats where the legends in tech are made. 

- Can I as the business owner afford to take this risk ? Well the decision above is my answer.

>Over Deliver

- Deliver better than what you promise. Then everything will be 'hunky dory' 

The other way around where 90% of suppliers do is a sure fire way to failure ;

- Over commit on their specifications 

- Under deliver on their deliverables.

It is a sure fire way of failure and the subsequent consequences of that failure will follow. 

>Do multiple Risk Assessments of the Potential paths to take, playing out possible end game  scenarios with realistic expectations of each and every outcome.

Slowly and surely ; 

Up and On.