Mount Everest and the Exactness of Financial People

This post appeared in my friend Roland Teo's blog and I find it very relevant in today's world especially dealing with the
Financial people, as it goes to show that alot of times, 80% of our time is spent on dissecting and focussing on 20% of the problems which we have successfully managed and arguments arise over the smallest things. So for the post below,credit goes to Roland Teo.

"Mount Everest. I am sure everyone knows it is highest mountain in the world, way above 8000 metres.

I read recently in the newspapers that there are disputes on the height between China and Nepal, given the height of Everest one would assume the dispute must be over at least 100 meters to be meaningful, right? Well read the article, excerpts as follows:

"After decades of argument, China and Nepal have finally found a solution to their long running dispute over the height of Mount Everest. The world's highest mountain lies on the border between the 2 countries and they have disagreed for years over its exact height. Nepal measures the mountain at 8848 metres - insisting it is nearly four metres taller than China's measurements claim.

Officials from the two neighbours have reached a compromise at talks in Kathmandu - agreeing that the two measurements refer to different things - one to the height of Everest's rock and the other to the height of its snowcap. ...."

My thoughts on this argument; it appears China and Nepal does not have any other major problems to deal with but to engage in arguing over this miniscule issue. The difference they are arguing over of 4 metres represents less the 0.05% of the height of the Mountain. Instead of engaging in decades of argument, why not split the difference by averaging it and both agree that the height is 8846 metres, so both are wrong by a mere 2 metres. Again, given the height of Everest how does the 2 parties know they got their height right anyway?? Further other than the officials and scientist does anybody care whether Everest is 8848 metre or 8844 meters?

The business parallel for this is that I find the finance department in organisations will spend huge amount and time plus long hours to work out to the exact last thousand of dollars the business forecasts. Business forecasts are a prediction of the future and there is no exactly right number, the assumptions are more important than huge spreadsheets that churns out an arithmatecally correct number. Every often a "back of envelope" calculation taking less than half an hour gives a better estimate than those generate after many hours of toiling. Yet from my experience, finance department continue to take great pride in their approach and will come out with forecast profits of, say, $17.345 million - and they will get very upset if I round it to $18 million or the business head of that unit rounds down to $17 million!!! Just like the Everest dispute, this kind of difference is not significant enough particularly in forecasting which is a prediction of the future given a given set of actions and events which may or may not hold true.

What's worse is after toiling long hours and coming with the exact profit forecast which adds up nicely, I found out that the numbers usually doesn't hold up to some common sense questions on the assumptions!!!

Anyway, the point I am trying to make here is in forecasts the assumptions are more important, there are no exactness in the numbers so stop spending long hours churning it. Just like the height of Mount Everest most times it is not worth the effort to get that kind of exactness because it is not that important nor critical.

Further, in life we argue over many things and lose our temper in the process - if you look back many times the issue that we fight over is merely the equivalent of the 4 meters difference in the height of Mount Everest!! "

Everything depends on China and India now

Shanghai Post Office Building photo taken from Jin Ma Tower






Huang Pu river showing the Pu Xi side of Shanghai

Lady Gaga Telephone Spoof

Something to laugh the Mid Week Blues, My Favourite 'Ah Long' Song - Telephone

European Union ? or Disunion ?

The news these days is about the major weakness of the EURO currency in an ever weakening position, week after week. This is mainly in part to the following frightening factors :

a) Greek bailout from bankruptcy to the tune of EUR 110 billion
b) Spain on the verge of bankruptcy to almost twice that
c) Portugal also teetering on the same path
d) Ireland barely surviving
e) Iceland bankrupt now having to depend on IMF loans to get back

Added to that the 2 eruptions of late by the unstable Icelandinc volcano, Eljafallakul, which has made many European airlines bleed red ink, tourists and travellers stranded,the Dow Jones falling 1,000 points in a single day last week, very shaky recovery by the largest economy in the EU, Germany, and you have the Year of Living Dangerously.

Europe was touted as the stable region, in the wake of the toxic asset housing crash, however, time has proven that this region is now the catalyst for a double dip economic recession. Interest rates are next to 0% in Europe, riots have taken place in Greece due to the very tough austerity measures leaving people feeling very uncertain about the future.

Is this the start of the European Crisis of 2010 ? I am betting so.

4,000 Hits.1,000 hits in 4 months !

Thanks friends !

I know that reading my blog can be a little boring, as I have stayed away from the hot button issues like politics and religion but there are many other areas whereby one can make a point about current affairs and still be relevant in today's society.So I would like to take this opportunity to thank every one who has visited this blog and posted their comments or just eyeballed this blog.

I am no self-glorifying media wannabe celebrity and I feel that this blog is my part to let friends and colleagues know where I stand and what I am thinking on various topics of the day. If it has benefitted you in any way, then good for you else it is just entertainment for the day, as Sebastian puts it " shooting my mouth off".

This is indeed freedom of expression and everyone is entitled to his say, right or wring. Seize the day my friends !

Asia rising - random thoughts during a car wash

This is the year which the rest of the world is still struggling and Asia is rising in terms of human and economic development, GDP per capita and standard of living. As the European Union struggles with its not so unified union of countries, it is bogged down by the PIIGS group of countries which are, technically, bankrupt. Portugal, Ireland,Iceland and Greece are all part of the EU and each with massive amounts of Government debt. Bailing out these countries will, in my opinion, take another decade and whether there are other countries teetring on the brink of country remains to be seen.
They have to take the bitter pill of borrowing from the IMF and their stringent transparency requirements to pull themselves out of their quagmire. All this is new for the Europeans but in Asia, countries like Philippines, Thailand,Indonesia, South Korea have all experienced the tough times and are now much more prepared for future financial crises.

The access to easy loans at rock bottom interest rates made every country want to modernise, but with this step, countries without enough reserves, are running a very risky path, as interest rates can rise, tourism revenue is very fickle owing to terrorists potential attacks and even natural disasters like the vocanic eruption of the E.......... is causing billions of losses, again mainly in Europe. America on the other hand, has bitten the bullet and is still fighting to rid itself of the toxic assets, bankrupt and manipulating companies, and tackle the massive health care monster to get all Americans access to basic health insurance. The Obama administration has done well on the last issue, but is now tackling 'big business' to reduce and
overhaul banks ways of doing business.Its a tough objective, but again, the effects will only be seen after his first 4 years in office.

This is the year which Asia will truly shine. Led by 2 giants, China and India, partially decouple from the world economy and drive the trade between its own neighbours to new highs. Already the middle income belt of these 2 countries is easily 500 million and with their growing desire for travel, luxury good and latest gadgets like the iPad, iPhone, Blackberry will stimulate their respective economies and the economies of countries that make them too. They will want nice houses in beautiful locations, gamble a little, safe living environment and let their children attend good schools. Ideally, in their home countries or at a neighbouring country. Many people are switching to educating their children for higher education in neighbouring Singapore which is an education hub with many top US,UK,European and Australian Universities housed in the Lion City.

So cities like Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing, Mumbai and Chennai, Sydney, and Melbourne will all thrive for the forseeable future. Its the Asian century and lets make the most of it !

Dinner at Jing Restaurant

The almost completed Casino Marina Sands

Last week we celebrated my wife's birthday with a dinner at Jing Restaurant. Located at One Fullerton right beside the Singapore river, it has a tremendous view of the soon to be completed Marina Sands casino. The table we sat offers an unblocked view of the entire Sands hotel, convention centre and casino and will be THE place to be once the casino opens probably by June 2010.


Soft shell crab with Foie Gras

We ordered the chef's recommendation for 2 persons and it started pretty OK with the soft shell crab and foie gras (goose liver). Service at this establishment I must say is not good, as the waitresses were quite slow to respond to our calls as well as not well trained in the etiquette of asking the patrons about the dinner etc.


Winter Melon Soup pared with Shiraz Cabernet

The second and third courses were above average, with the steak nice and marbled, but with too much sauce. The winter melon soup was very good and savoury, in my opinion.


Steak with Lea & Perrins Sauce

Coming to the 4th and 5th dishes which were the chilli crab and the noodles with duck meat, it was downhill, as the chilli crab paste was a bit runny and the noodles were too mushy.


Chili Crab with Man Tou

All in all, the ambience of the place was excellent, the food was above average and the service was quite abysmal for a fine dining restaurant. If they could amend on the chilli crab choice (perhaps try for dou fu with mushrooms) and the noodles changed to fried rice with salted fish, it would be have been in my opinion, a more balanced menu.