Recession is the time for great opportunities, do I dare to seize them ?

        This month saw the PMI or purchasing manager's index shrink to 47.8, the lowest in 6 months and proves that on the whole, the economy is suffering a technical recession, where 2 successive quarters have contracted with the previous ones, so Singapore is in a recession. Its yet to be felt, but people in the know are quietly disposing the additional or non-essential assets to ride through, should the measures and jobs situation get worse.

       I for one, and doing just that, but I am also hedging my bets so to speak, by selling anything and everything wherever I can, leveraging on contacts, goodwill, and even friendship. Its the time for boys and goondhus (stupid fellows) to grow up and experience first hand, how it is to survive in the dog-eat-dog world.

      Singapore may be well poised with a compliant workforce, competitively priced, but rents costs and  dollar costs per worker (including levies) are far higher than many other countries. We have no choice but to move up the value chain. If the new  'big thing' doesn't materialise for say 6 months - that is a killer product which will get everyone, to buy, such as the IPhone 5 or the move towards a greener earth leading to green based products, we will be facing the worst scenario, stagflation, whereby the economy will stagnate or even stay in negative zone while inflation (weakining of money) goes on unabated. Singapore needs to manufacture, and export things,  20% - 25 % of our workforce are employed in this sector, and contributes to 1/12 th (8% ) of the overall GDP.  Furthermore, with the interrelation of things, banks and lenders will be hit too, with foreclosures and monetary recalls.

    

      Its a scary thought.

Another marathon year end ? Will I be able to do it ?

                                               2010 marathon, when I still looked fit !

     This year,marks my half-century milestone. I will turn 50 next month and I am struggling physically from training for my year end ritual, the Standard Chartered Marathon. Having done 6 full marathons thus far (including 2011's edition), I am less challenged by the event and more challenged by just getting up in the morning and heading out for that all important 10K and build up. I will set myself a target in 8 weeks, here it is in full public view.

                 First 4 weeks

      Wk 1 (Oct 6 - 13)       40 km ;    10, rest, 10 , rest, 5, 5, rest
      Wk 2 (Oct 14-21)       40 km ;    10, rest, 10,  rest,5, 5, rest
      Wk 3 (Oct  22 - 29)    50 km ;    15 km, rest, 10, 5 10, 10, rest
      Wk 4 (Oct 30 - Nov 5) 50 km    15km, rest,10, 5, 10, 10, rest

      If I can't keep to this pace, owing to injury, work committments (age and social committments not excuses for not training) - I will give up this precious goal.  

     Seize the Day !!    

Friendship - can one put a price to it ?

                                   


             Recently I was asked to help out a friend in need, this means lending money. My first rule of thumb is that I have lent money to friends who told me the blunt truth that they were in debt and would take some time to repay it. The first friend left the country shortly after I loaned the money and is now in China. I doubt, I will see the likes of her again. The second friend was a long time friend who is based in HK and again he made no big promises of when he would pay the loan back. The amounts are not large, but both in the 4 figure region respectively. But I will remember them, because a loan is a commercial transaction, and business and friendship should never mix. That is my golden rule. 

            The point of it all is this. If you are indeed a friend, a good pal, someone whom you have shared good times and bad, why not help out, if you can afford it ?  The thing is, money is a great divider and many a times, the love of money is the root of all evil. There is this friend who got caught in a financial transaction gone bad, and started calling all his acquaintences including me  for small loans, each party he called he twisted the story a little bit to give the version which suited him best. All our mutual friends avoided him, and there is one friend, who has known him for 20 years and refused to lend him even the meagre sum he needed, saying that the idea of his friend repaying him was remote. I am appalled that people you may know for a length of time,maybe in years only want to know you when you have money.  Who will be with you when you are old and poor ?  Your true friends ? Your children ?  

         Friendships are most true when you are genuine and enjoy the company. 

         Buying friends presents, drinks and meals are fine. Even if it runs into the 4 figures for some, but when the issue becomes a money lending situation, friends start questioning the motives and even the foundations of the friendship. Chose who you want as friends wisely.

        What happens when you yourself are then caught in a bind ?   Who will then help you if you need some cash to tide over till the next payment comes in ?  Save for a rainy day and pray that that day never comes. 

        You reap what you sow. 

        

Is the USA in a better position now than 4 years ago ?

                                
 

       I read an analytical piece about the US economy by a Robert Samuelson, for the Washington Post Writers Group, who compares Obama led Democratic Government from the time he was about to get elected - Sept 2008 till now, Sept 2012, where he is again contesting for re-election. He compared numbers such as inflation year on year, property prices, real disposable per capita income , cost of petrol or gasoline, Dow Jones stock index, unemployment in terms of percentage, as well as confidence level about the economy.
      
     In short the big picture shows this :

     2012 vs end 2008
    ---------------------------

a) Property or asset prices : down 20%
b) Dow Jones index : up (60%)
c) Inflation YoY :   8%
d) Cost of Gasoline : up 108%
e) Unemployment : up from 7.8% to 8.1%
f)  Consumer confidence : up by 62%
g) Salaries (hourly earnings) :   up by 6% YoY
h) Jobs in millions  : down 0.2 %    (133.6 Million vs 133.3 Million)

        He summarised that it was almost the same levels, except for the huge jump in gasoline prices. Dow Jones was up 60% but to translate that to real terms is impossible to assess, as it depends on whether the majority of people are into stock and equities. 

       In short, it boiled down to unemployment, if people can get jobs, then they have a fixed revenue stream and they can plan their future and retirement, housing, starting families and their lives in general. 

      I would say, that the American economy is in a state of limbo and if the jobs situation has stagnated or gotten worse, then the Obama administration has failed. That is the bottom line. 
I am no economist, but people in the new economy need assistance in getting onto the first rung of society, ie. jobs. Its not the quality of jobs, but jobs in total, in numbers. 

      Obama's team has been saying, well give it some time for the bills to take effect, the jobs will come, that has been their mantra and meantime, the Fed Reserve goes and approves the printing of more money or Quantitative Easing 3, which is pumping US$ 40 billion into the economy by buying long term US bonds each month, which will ultimately go into the banks coffers. What do the banks do ? Will they will then offer loans to all and sundry and repackage the debt just like the recent subprime crisis ? Or will the money flow out into the higher growth havens like China,  or even the safe havens like Singapore and Switzerland and bolster the stock market assets and property markets - as it has before with massive flows of hot money after the QE 1 and QE 2 leading to astronomical property price per square foot  in Singapore never experienced historically. 

     So, the writer asks, are Americans pessimstic about the future or optimistic ? Its less about whether Americans are actually better off now than 4 years ago - perhaps things have stagnated - and more about whether they believe things will get better. 

    The best is yet to be ? Or the worst is yet to come ?   


    

We can never go back, so be the best that you can be

                                                The boys at Gold Coast Australia, 2004 
      
                                    " You can never go back, you can never look back"  from the Boys of Summer, a Don Henley (Eagles frontman) song.

                 This is just a reminder to me and all who know me, is that to Seize the Day is to make the most of your time here. We have perhaps around 80 or less years (maybe 90 for some lucky few), so whatever your dreams tell you, it is you and you alone who will decide whether you want to pursue those dreams.

                 I may sound a little idealistic, but its my life, and I will lead it with no regrets.  

Awesome video from Rusutsu resort

Friday 7th September 2012, Reunion of the '78 Saints.

                

                                                Team '78, from L to R :
           Back Row :   Lee Lai Seng, Shoeb Kagda,Yap Tzin Haen,Andrew Lee,
          Front Row :   Paul Ezekiel, Phang Seng Meng,Andrew Paul,ChewPing Nan.
  

                      
                                                          Lee Lai Seng, Myself 

Friday 7th September was the day we will remember for a long time to come 

We started the day early, some of us arrived at the Joan Bowen cafe in St. Andrew's Village as early as 3pm, to setup the sound system, music, Bingo and props. Kudos must go out to the following tireless Saints who gave up their precious time, and some opportunity costs to make this, our 50th year in existence a truly "'Once in a Lifetime"' experience which all who were present would be talking for years to come.

The organisers are :

1. A. Surendran - MC and general Overall in Charge
2. Chew Ping Nan - the man who kept everyone in the Loop 
3. Albert Hong Heng Chow - Treasurer 
4. YapTzin Haen -  Tombola  Man
5. Andrew Lee  -   Sound Man


Thank you guys for an unforgettable night ! , especially Surendran and Ping Nan. 

                                        Phang Seng Meng, Andrew Lee, A. Surendran

You are the Men !

                              
         Our Master of ceremonies for the night, A. Surendran, who handled the evening's 
                                            proceedings with great professionalism 
              
In addition, there were 2 us, Paul Ezekiel and myself who formed a 2 man Band, dubbed "The Secret".  We played the School Hymn as well several songs from the Bee Gees and the Beatles which (OK I am blowing our horns here, and purely my biased opinion ) were appreciated by the Old Boys.

So the itinerary went like this :

4pm - Arrive for football, unfortanately after 15 minutes, Andrew Paul hurt his leg from the astroturf, and hobbled off. Rain stopped play after 20 minutes, and we waited at the changing rooms area till the All Clear was sounded.

5pm - Continued with football, the players numbered around 10 - 12, and they were :

Myself                                       Wong Yoong Ping
Yap Tzin Haen,                        Phang Seng Meng
Chew Ping Nan                       Andrew Paul 
Shoeb Kagda                          Jeffrey Kwan
Albert Hong,                             Paul Ezekiel.

Score was 7 - 5 in our team's favour.

Rain stopped play after about 45 minutes by which time, we were all tired out (we are 50 by the way!) and decided tohead for the early showers.

6.30 pm   Arrival of the Old Boys, there was much back slapping, hugging, "'Ï can't believe its you"' expressions and reminiscing about the Good Old Times.

                                    
              Phang Seng Meng, Aldrin Ow Hing Choy, Chiu Loo Kwong, Jeffrey Kwan

                           

                             Abraham Mathew, Glyn Sim, Yap Tzin Haen, Andrew Lee 



7.30pm  Our old school teahcers arrived, I was so touched to have a good chat with Mr. Victor Wee who is 79 this year, but his mind is still razor sharp. He is retired from teaching and helping out at the orphanage in North East Thailand 4 times each year. Also present were Mrs. Diana Wing, Mrs Susie Fredericks, Ms. Jackie Oehlers, Mr. Tin (hockey coach) and Mr. William Wong (Junior 2 teachers)

                                    Section of the Old Boys with Mrs. Susie Fredericks 

                                      



To all the teachers who made it, and those who couldn't.   THANK YOU and GOD BLESS !!

 There was much merriment, and 'talking cock"  amongst the Old Boys that when Surendran took the mike to address the crowd, he had to resort to the school boyish taunts of "Shut the fxxx up !"' to get us all quiet. Even in the presence of our Minister buddy, we all behaved like we were 15, and why not ? This was a private event and our opinions and our behavior could very well reflect our pure intentions with no agendas except for having a jolly good old time with our Primary 1 to Secondary 4 classmates, best friends and enemies and reminisce.

Yap Tzin Haen and Albert conducting the Bingo session

S. Thedasaidas, Peter Ooi, Andrew Lee

                             

 There was the Bingo, as well as the School Quiz, and 70s Songs and finally the Finale the School Song. There was so much memories, good and bad, that basically the food was secondary to us having a good time and seeing who looked like he was still 15 !! 

  Ping Nan leading the School Hymn with me on Keyboards, Paul Ezekiel on Guitar 
                                       and Andrew Lee with the Sound System

                
                                           Section of the 60 + crowd who turned up


   What an unforgettable and epic meeting of Boys turned Men.      

    UP AND ON !   KEEP THE FLAME BURNING BRIGHTLY EVER !