QRA International website
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Is the USA in a better position now than 4 years ago ?
I read an analytical piece about the US economy by a Robert Samuelson, for the Washington Post Writers Group, who compares Obama led Democratic Government from the time he was about to get elected - Sept 2008 till now, Sept 2012, where he is again contesting for re-election. He compared numbers such as inflation year on year, property prices, real disposable per capita income , cost of petrol or gasoline, Dow Jones stock index, unemployment in terms of percentage, as well as confidence level about the economy.
In short the big picture shows this :
2012 vs end 2008
---------------------------
a) Property or asset prices : down 20%
b) Dow Jones index : up (60%)
c) Inflation YoY : 8%
d) Cost of Gasoline : up 108%
e) Unemployment : up from 7.8% to 8.1%
f) Consumer confidence : up by 62%
g) Salaries (hourly earnings) : up by 6% YoY
h) Jobs in millions : down 0.2 % (133.6 Million vs 133.3 Million)
He summarised that it was almost the same levels, except for the huge jump in gasoline prices. Dow Jones was up 60% but to translate that to real terms is impossible to assess, as it depends on whether the majority of people are into stock and equities.
In short, it boiled down to unemployment, if people can get jobs, then they have a fixed revenue stream and they can plan their future and retirement, housing, starting families and their lives in general.
I would say, that the American economy is in a state of limbo and if the jobs situation has stagnated or gotten worse, then the Obama administration has failed. That is the bottom line.
I am no economist, but people in the new economy need assistance in getting onto the first rung of society, ie. jobs. Its not the quality of jobs, but jobs in total, in numbers.
Obama's team has been saying, well give it some time for the bills to take effect, the jobs will come, that has been their mantra and meantime, the Fed Reserve goes and approves the printing of more money or Quantitative Easing 3, which is pumping US$ 40 billion into the economy by buying long term US bonds each month, which will ultimately go into the banks coffers. What do the banks do ? Will they will then offer loans to all and sundry and repackage the debt just like the recent subprime crisis ? Or will the money flow out into the higher growth havens like China, or even the safe havens like Singapore and Switzerland and bolster the stock market assets and property markets - as it has before with massive flows of hot money after the QE 1 and QE 2 leading to astronomical property price per square foot in Singapore never experienced historically.
So, the writer asks, are Americans pessimstic about the future or optimistic ? Its less about whether Americans are actually better off now than 4 years ago - perhaps things have stagnated - and more about whether they believe things will get better.
The best is yet to be ? Or the worst is yet to come ?
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