"We have a lot of work to do"

       

        When Mr. Barack Obama was reelected for another 4 years in November 2012, this was one of his key message statements to the faithful who voted for the Democratic Party over the GOP (Grand Old Party) Republicans.

        The USA has lost its mandate to lead the world economically, it can at best be an indicator of where the next 'Big Thing' will come but I think that Asia has its best break now to lead the world in cool gadgets and products, as Asia is where the mass consumers are. China, India, Japan and Korea have a combined population of over 3.5 billion with a middle class of easily 500 million to 700 million. Already popular culture is looking at the Korean Hallyou (or Wave) and PSY's Gangnam Style dance is insanely popular amongst Youtubers. (almost 900 million 'hits' at last count)

      First the Presient has to get both Houses to agree on raising taxes, else the Fiscal Cliff will impact the whole country if there is no agreement. The Government will then be forced to shut down, schools and public services, utilities and essential Government Ministries will be shut, and then the domino effect will hit the rest of the country. 

      There is no turning back, if they do not do something on the massive debt and continue to print money, and raise their debt, while hoping for the economy to continue its anaemic growth, then there will be another tepid or mild expansion for the next  4 years.

       So, for the US to reduce the deficit and national debt, it first has to generate jobs. To generate jobs, the US needs to borrow more money to create the new (renewable and clean industries such as solar and wind, as well as expand its drilling for oil in Texas as well as Alaska. Once that is done, then jobs relating to the new industries can be created. But then it means incurring more debt, and hopefully these new industries will be able to export massively and reduce the trade deficit as well as pay back the debt. But the US is not the leader in renewable and clean industries (China and South America are), so the chances of the US being able to export its way out of the trade deficit and massive debt is slim.

     Unless the US finds a new 'champion' product or service which it can claim to to be the global first leader, it will be still stuck in an anaemic growth path, and debt will still be as high as ever. 

        

     

The foolish run today

       I will always remember this run today for a long long time. Today, as I was preparing for the 42km marathon in roughly 2 weeks' time, I decided to take a challenge and run with a new pair of Asics Kayanos (version 18). I decided to run the Sime Trail at the McRitchie Reservoir which is roughly 11km from start to end, 1 complete circle. 

       I am not a novice at running the trails at McRitchie, but as I finished the run, something so significant dawned upon me, that I decided to write this down for posterity. I finished work before 6pm and made a beeline for McRitchie reservoir hoping to catch the last rays of light. By the time I arrived and changed up, and started out, it was 6.30pm. I did the run which was in the jungle, and not uncommonly, I would see moneys, sometimes monitor lizards and the occasional snake. The first half went by quite smoothly. I covered 7km in about 42 minutes or so, at a decent pace of 6min per km. My new shoes were absorbing the shocks of the uneven ground made worse by the rains the past days. There are many exposed roots and its slippery,so one wrong move and you could end up with a twisted ankle or worse, a major leg or body injury. The trail is meant mainly for walkers and people with trail sticks frequent it.
Some weeks ago some trail runners were lost in the Reservoir for up to 9 hours, so its not without its risks.

         I made it to the 2/3 rd mark at about 7.05pm. The ranger station was closed and a sign said that the treetop walk was closed and not open to public after 5.30pm  I was left with 3 options a) use the Sime road, which was well lit and run the remainder 5 km back b) Head back the way I came, which was quite treacherous with the fading light or c) continue with the Sime Trail into the forest and reach the end by sheer foolishness and willpower. That meant running up 9 small hills in the trail which was pot holed, and had mud as well as broken stones placed over the places where it was too muddy. Tough choice. 

        I chose option c). Purely by 'gut feel' and not logic, when I could have chosen the easy way back and ran along the road to the start point.With the light fading, the trail I was quite familiar became a black or near black track, with the occasional light from the opening of the forest which let the moonlight in from the half moon. I was afraid, but chose to press on into the darkness. The trail had its ups and downs, and pot holes, which I had to FEEL MY WAY through. I was scared to be scared, not wanting to think of the consequences of a wrong footing or  going off the track. There were lights but I realised that they were fireflies in the forest. After about 15 minutes  of solitary running in the darkness, there was a torchlight and one runner came towards me, he greeted me, and passed into the night. I felt much more sure. There was another solitary runner about 5 minutes later who greeted me with a hearty "Hi" and I was so energised, I ran with all my might. It was going to be OK, although I had another good 15 minutes still in the black forest.

        At the end of the trail, the lights of the reservoir beckoned. My thoughts during the run were this :

1. I am a risk taker, that is why I decided to go into business. You are always thrust into the great abyss (black hole) of uncertain future but you must have the extreme confidence that you will overcome whatever comes my way.

2. Do not think too much about the what ifs, because, life is real short, and if you spend too much time thinking about things you will never ever achieve anything.

    My run finished rather unspectacularly by the reservoir's edge. I remember the words immortalised by the late Steve Jobs to the new Harvard Graduands.

   " Stay Foolish, Stay Hungry, Never Settle".

   Well, the first 2 I have achieved with 100% accuracy. That is why I am still making a living running my own business. I have never regretted a single day of it. Never settle means that I must aspire for better than what I have achieved today. That will only be known over time.

   Seize the Day my friends.   


     
    
    
             

Zlatan Ibrahahimovic Incredible Goal - what a gem !

4 more years (of mediocrity)

        As a non partisan observer of the 2012 US elections, I can conclude, that given the 2 candidates to choose from,  Americans chose to return the incumbent Mr. Barack Obama to office. When he took office in Nov 2008, the US economy was teetering on facing with the most critical economic crisis of its history with major lenders from Fanny Mae, Freddy Mac ,Citigroup, Lehman Brothers and  AIG bordering on bankruptcy. All these were blamed on the banks unfettered , unregulated (mind you) and near illegal bets on subprime mortgages loans, credit swaps and as a result Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, with AIG and many others bailed out by the TARF or emergency money to continue their ruthless lending.

      Four years down the road, with unemployment at a near all time high of 7.8% and the reemergence of General Motors after a forced bankruptcy, USA voted in Barack Obama again. There will be millions of analyses down the road for why they voted for him, and not the savvy businessman Mitt Romney. But for me, as a company director, if you are hired to manage a company, your job performance is normally measured in a span of 3 years, and if you are hired to make things better, then you better do so in whatever way you can. Else, you get shown the door, or fired. That is the American and global way of rewarding good performance and releasging poor performers. 

     So during his tenure what did the Fed do ? They printed more money to lend to the ailing banks stating that they were 'too big to fail' and as a result the people who created this mess and stall the world exconomy leading to an even greater mess down the road (few years from now) are still in their jobs and with more money too. Ridiculous isn't it ? 

     So America has voted in the incumbent Obama, he pledged to make good on the economy, but with the fiscal cliff looming and a divided House (Senate is Democrat majority and House of representatives is Republican) it is looking alot like a bleak Christmas and and uncertain new year.

    Wall Street as well as all major markets around the world sent their message to Obama.
They all dropped from 1.2 to 3 % in a day.  

    Oh dear.      

One of the all time classics - Desperado

This classic from the 70's by the Eagles is a tune which I am playing on my Keyboards at home, for easy access I have pasted it on my Blog. Its best played without any Autotune or Drum Beat and goes well with any Karaoke singalong.  

Small HK apartment, but many possibilities ; Creativity at its best !

6 million dollar question, can life be comfortable with 6 million inhabitants ?

        

                                   




         The recent comment by our Prime Minister during the post National Day rally, stating that Singapore could manage with 6 million people, set many people questioning the feasibility as well as the possible livability with 6 million in our midst. 
        
      Yesterday, in our newspapers, they interviewed people from economists, gerontologists, social experts and urban planners for their views on this 6 million. 2 key points stick out, 

1. The urban population density will be raised from 12,000 per square kilometer to 14,000 per square kilometer.  That is alot of people per square kilometer ! Singapore will have to build not only upwards (40 to 50 storey skyscrapers) as well as build downwards (perhaps 10 to 20 levels below the ground).

2.     The social expert was concerned about the human and sociological impact on people citing experiments on mice whereby 3 mice in a cage, can coexist quite harmoniously, while 10 mice will be pushing and shoving, and competing for the top of the cage for the best 'air'.
Life would be very messy and ultracompetitive. People with the big hinterland like China, USA, even Malaysia can always move to the countryside and take things easy, costs of things and life in general would be slower. For us in our city state, we would have to emigrate.

       How realistic those scenarios may be, as currently with 5.3 million inhabitants, I can only  hazard and extrapolate, we are already witnessing more unsocial and crude behavior in lifts, trains, and malls for example. 

      One key point, is that for Singapore to progress economically, if there is no further productivity from our population, then we have to import people and businesses to prop up the GDP numbers. We all want to have our salaries moving upwards 5 - 7% year on year to tide and manage inflation. So, if our people cannot move upwards and create more value added services or killer products, then we need the new people to create them for Singapore.

       True ?