Preparing and Proftting from the Unknown - Unknowns

Noel 

        I am rereading this fascinating book called The Art of Thinking Clearly by Ralf Dobelli. In it are 99 short ideas which help people like myself develop independent thought.  This short story is called the Black Swan episode, and the jist of the story is this. People learn by attending both school which is a cumulative compilation of people's past experiences and lessons conjugated into basic building blocks of alphabets, logic, math, science, humanities, history and literature. The other is the huge and no holds barred life experiences. Every person is shaped primarily by genes, values transmitted by our parents, caregivers, teachers, relatives, friends, schoolmates and when you start working, colleagues.

       Our responses will be in line with what we have been taught either in a logical, musical, spiritual and religious sense as we take references to firstly our earliest and secondly our most cognizant responses to what we see and experience. Every one's interpretation of an event is moulded and each person's account will be tainted by what he or she is most familiar with.

       The term Black Swan is an event which up to the current time has never occurred in the concious realm of the ordinary. Things like the the explosion of Mount Pompeii in Italy, the Ice Age taking place, the creation of fire, the invention of the Atomic Bomb, Nuclear bomb, the findings of Copernicus which postulated that the Earth is not the Centre of the Universe, the creation of the Internet, handphones and the like.

     In 2004, the then Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said, that there are the Known Knowns (those are facts), there are the Known Unknowns (we know what we dont know

but we know that it exists) and the Unknown Unknowns (we do not even know that it ever is possible to exist).  

    So what happens when the Unthinkable happens ?  Ralf Dobelli suggests the following in the meantime, get out of debt, save conservatively, invest moderately - this is to stay afloat during a negative Black Swan event ; The election of the populist Donald Trump, could possibly be the negative Black Swan event. 

     In the positive Black Swan event, Dr. Dobelli suggests in the meantime that we should   work at either being an artist, an inventor or an entrepreneur with a scalable product.

     Bring it On !!  

Goodbye Mr. Berry ; thank you for the music !

I read with sadness that one of the pioneers of Rock and Roll, Chuck Berry died today at 90 years of age. He was one of the true founders of the music genre Rock and Roll. There are many pioneers, but Chuck Berry was truly one of the guitar greats. His life was rocked by that of many rock musicians, and scandal. He was incarcerated and never won a Grammy outright. 

But like all great musicians, 'he could play a guitar like ringing a bell". The genius of a master is to make the inanely difficult seem to easy to do. 

Chuck, give them the music wherever you are ! 


As a footnote, the piano player reminds me of Animal of Sesame Street ! Hahahaha ! 

The rolling back of Dodd Frank bill will spell danger for the conflict mines.

     I read an article in the National Geographic whereby the tin, gold and tantalum, mines based in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were being pressured by the then US sanction under Dodd Frank ruling to exercise 'due dilligence' as it was ruining many young Congolese, many as young as 8 or 9 years old. The mines are located in the eastern DRC which are normally run by organizations who employ young Congolese at rock bottom salaries and no health insurance. Since the eastern DRC is ruled mainly by warlords who and the mines are located far away from the capital of Kinshasa, most of the commodities end up being sold to middle-men companies and are then re-sold to other companies before ending up in the smelter (high temperature furnace) of some newly developing country which makes semiconductors, or elecronic circuit cards. 

   You see, the tin, gold and tantalum form the key rare earth materials for the semiconductor industry. The gold is used as wires bonded within the die of the IC chip. Tin and tantalum form the base material for the underfill of PCB printed circuit boards and tin also forms the contact points as solder ball material between the IC chip and the chip card or motherboard.

    The Eastern part of Congo is ruled by warlords and only Kinshasa is under Federal control. Hence the mines setup by multinational corporations providing vertical integration to the supply chain of the semiconductor industry such as the raw tantalum and gold were forced to reduce the exploitation of child labour as per the Dodd Frank ruling which embargoed or made more stricter regualtions trading with the US. The warlords sold the raw materials to the middle-men companies in exchange for funds and weaponry to continue their dominace.  

    Now with the Trump White House doing a roll back on many trade deals such as the TPP and the NAFTA, the failing President has made another boo-boo. With the revoking of the Dodd Frank ruling regarding conflict mines, many of these so called industry giants will be back to their old ways, of employing child labour and causing untold and unimaginable suffering to the emerging African subcontinent.

   A tragedy is unfolding within our lifetimes.  

Battle of Hertgen Forest - Good War Movie ; worth 90 minutes of your time.

2nd Visit to Germany 1991

This is my 2nd visit to Germany as the then sales representative of Heraeus Voetsch in 1991. My mentor and principal, Frank Rigley is also shown in this video reversing the car at a high speed and looking young and dashing. He was around 50 at that time.

Also in the pictute is Root Lin of Taiwan, K.K. Chan of Hong Kong and Mr. Embe of Egypt (if I recall correctly).

26 years old video. Stuff of Legends !   

Pokemon Go !

Taken at Whisk Tanjung Pagar last year

     People of the older generation (yes we are getting 'old' !) cannot fathom the appeal of phone apps like the Pokemon Go ! I think it is frankly a game to get people out of the house and turn them into 'zombies' !  I have seen numerous instances at East Coast Park and many common areas in housing estates where the catchers congregate and catch the monsters. Gotta Catch Them All is the buzz word but frankly, its insanity all the same to me.

Give me a nice long run in the morning or evening anyday.

My good friend Chong Ki Keong with Pikachu

My lawyer freind from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Chong KK is an avid fan of the PG game. 

All I can say is if it is good for the hand-eye coordination, I guess it is does no harm.

There are obviously cases of people injuring themselves when they dash across the road or jump over bushes and fall in the pursuit of the monsters. However, as with any new novelty, the effect has worn out here in Singapore. 

My 2 young are not addicts to it, so it is still another game I have not tried or missed.

Believe - Act - Result - Belief

Antoni Gaudi Believed he could fuse Nature with his Work

hence the La Pedrera

         This is the marketing concept by Philip Kotler in his Principles of Marketing. It simply states the state of mind is formed by 3 processes, firstly the Belief, then the Action (not just words) and then the Result will then recalibrate the Belief and on it goes, either in a virtuous or vicious cycle forever in a circle or cycle.

       There was a  young man who was down on his luck, so he was at the park bench just looking downcast and wondering how he was going to pay off all of his gambling, company debts and house mortgage which was also pulling him down, as his company was sinking in the red. He thought of ending it all and saving the agony of facing all the lawyers, debt collectors and banks, and trade creditors. He was really tired, and was down, really down. 

      An old man walked by, he stopped by the young man and said, "Young Man, whats troubling you ? " The young man looking up and just wanting a listening ear told him of all o his troubles in life, his struggling business which was affecting his mood and hence his arguments with his wife, leading him to try his luck at the casinos and hence end up losing a bundle, which was supposed to be the college eduction fund for his 2 kids, and the list went on and on... 

    After listening, the old Man said, "Son, I will do you a favour, I am Warren Buffett. Take this cheque and meet me here, again at this park 1 year from now ". With that, the old man whipped out a cheque book and wrote a staggering amount of $500,000 and signed off "Warren Buffet". 

    The young man was astounded and could not believe his eyes. "Thank you sir ! I will make good this cheque and repay it back to you with interest ! Thank you for believing in me !" With that he hugged Mr. Buffett and took the cheque and walked quickly back to his office.

     Once back in the office, the Young Man reflected on his luck. He put the cheque right in front of his desk beside his family photos. "Well, someone believes in me ! I will use this cheque as a motivation. In fact I am so fired up, I will relook at my company's finacial position, renogiate the loan with the banks, relook at how to restructure my core business, hive off department A and merge B and C plus we need to expand to territory D'. He started facing all of his creditors with a new and willing heart and taking a never say die attitude with Warren Buffett's cheque as motivation he worked long hours. His staff saw his change and new found belief, quickly things started moving, orders started to flow in from new territories, people were moved and the unlucky ones given notices of release. It was painful but he worked with a new found passion and vision.

     The one year flew by. The man lived up to his promise. One year later, he waited at the park at exactly the same time and the Old Man was sitting there. The Young Man proudly presented back the $500,000 cheque to Mr Buffett and also the cheque for the interest. 

Just then a nurse from the nearby mental institution ran over... "Hey, thats our Mr. Sanford. Mr. Sanford, why do you keep running off just before your bath time ? " " Hey.. Young Man, I hope Mr Sanford has not been bugging you and pretending to be Warren Buffett has he ? Its a mess you know... he writes bogus cheques to people who he just met... and he has no money ! "

      The Young Man was dumbfounded.

      Reflect on this.

      Seize the Day