One of the all time classics - Desperado

This classic from the 70's by the Eagles is a tune which I am playing on my Keyboards at home, for easy access I have pasted it on my Blog. Its best played without any Autotune or Drum Beat and goes well with any Karaoke singalong.  

Small HK apartment, but many possibilities ; Creativity at its best !

6 million dollar question, can life be comfortable with 6 million inhabitants ?

        

                                   




         The recent comment by our Prime Minister during the post National Day rally, stating that Singapore could manage with 6 million people, set many people questioning the feasibility as well as the possible livability with 6 million in our midst. 
        
      Yesterday, in our newspapers, they interviewed people from economists, gerontologists, social experts and urban planners for their views on this 6 million. 2 key points stick out, 

1. The urban population density will be raised from 12,000 per square kilometer to 14,000 per square kilometer.  That is alot of people per square kilometer ! Singapore will have to build not only upwards (40 to 50 storey skyscrapers) as well as build downwards (perhaps 10 to 20 levels below the ground).

2.     The social expert was concerned about the human and sociological impact on people citing experiments on mice whereby 3 mice in a cage, can coexist quite harmoniously, while 10 mice will be pushing and shoving, and competing for the top of the cage for the best 'air'.
Life would be very messy and ultracompetitive. People with the big hinterland like China, USA, even Malaysia can always move to the countryside and take things easy, costs of things and life in general would be slower. For us in our city state, we would have to emigrate.

       How realistic those scenarios may be, as currently with 5.3 million inhabitants, I can only  hazard and extrapolate, we are already witnessing more unsocial and crude behavior in lifts, trains, and malls for example. 

      One key point, is that for Singapore to progress economically, if there is no further productivity from our population, then we have to import people and businesses to prop up the GDP numbers. We all want to have our salaries moving upwards 5 - 7% year on year to tide and manage inflation. So, if our people cannot move upwards and create more value added services or killer products, then we need the new people to create them for Singapore.

       True ?     

Recession is the time for great opportunities, do I dare to seize them ?

        This month saw the PMI or purchasing manager's index shrink to 47.8, the lowest in 6 months and proves that on the whole, the economy is suffering a technical recession, where 2 successive quarters have contracted with the previous ones, so Singapore is in a recession. Its yet to be felt, but people in the know are quietly disposing the additional or non-essential assets to ride through, should the measures and jobs situation get worse.

       I for one, and doing just that, but I am also hedging my bets so to speak, by selling anything and everything wherever I can, leveraging on contacts, goodwill, and even friendship. Its the time for boys and goondhus (stupid fellows) to grow up and experience first hand, how it is to survive in the dog-eat-dog world.

      Singapore may be well poised with a compliant workforce, competitively priced, but rents costs and  dollar costs per worker (including levies) are far higher than many other countries. We have no choice but to move up the value chain. If the new  'big thing' doesn't materialise for say 6 months - that is a killer product which will get everyone, to buy, such as the IPhone 5 or the move towards a greener earth leading to green based products, we will be facing the worst scenario, stagflation, whereby the economy will stagnate or even stay in negative zone while inflation (weakining of money) goes on unabated. Singapore needs to manufacture, and export things,  20% - 25 % of our workforce are employed in this sector, and contributes to 1/12 th (8% ) of the overall GDP.  Furthermore, with the interrelation of things, banks and lenders will be hit too, with foreclosures and monetary recalls.

    

      Its a scary thought.

Another marathon year end ? Will I be able to do it ?

                                               2010 marathon, when I still looked fit !

     This year,marks my half-century milestone. I will turn 50 next month and I am struggling physically from training for my year end ritual, the Standard Chartered Marathon. Having done 6 full marathons thus far (including 2011's edition), I am less challenged by the event and more challenged by just getting up in the morning and heading out for that all important 10K and build up. I will set myself a target in 8 weeks, here it is in full public view.

                 First 4 weeks

      Wk 1 (Oct 6 - 13)       40 km ;    10, rest, 10 , rest, 5, 5, rest
      Wk 2 (Oct 14-21)       40 km ;    10, rest, 10,  rest,5, 5, rest
      Wk 3 (Oct  22 - 29)    50 km ;    15 km, rest, 10, 5 10, 10, rest
      Wk 4 (Oct 30 - Nov 5) 50 km    15km, rest,10, 5, 10, 10, rest

      If I can't keep to this pace, owing to injury, work committments (age and social committments not excuses for not training) - I will give up this precious goal.  

     Seize the Day !!    

Friendship - can one put a price to it ?

                                   


             Recently I was asked to help out a friend in need, this means lending money. My first rule of thumb is that I have lent money to friends who told me the blunt truth that they were in debt and would take some time to repay it. The first friend left the country shortly after I loaned the money and is now in China. I doubt, I will see the likes of her again. The second friend was a long time friend who is based in HK and again he made no big promises of when he would pay the loan back. The amounts are not large, but both in the 4 figure region respectively. But I will remember them, because a loan is a commercial transaction, and business and friendship should never mix. That is my golden rule. 

            The point of it all is this. If you are indeed a friend, a good pal, someone whom you have shared good times and bad, why not help out, if you can afford it ?  The thing is, money is a great divider and many a times, the love of money is the root of all evil. There is this friend who got caught in a financial transaction gone bad, and started calling all his acquaintences including me  for small loans, each party he called he twisted the story a little bit to give the version which suited him best. All our mutual friends avoided him, and there is one friend, who has known him for 20 years and refused to lend him even the meagre sum he needed, saying that the idea of his friend repaying him was remote. I am appalled that people you may know for a length of time,maybe in years only want to know you when you have money.  Who will be with you when you are old and poor ?  Your true friends ? Your children ?  

         Friendships are most true when you are genuine and enjoy the company. 

         Buying friends presents, drinks and meals are fine. Even if it runs into the 4 figures for some, but when the issue becomes a money lending situation, friends start questioning the motives and even the foundations of the friendship. Chose who you want as friends wisely.

        What happens when you yourself are then caught in a bind ?   Who will then help you if you need some cash to tide over till the next payment comes in ?  Save for a rainy day and pray that that day never comes. 

        You reap what you sow. 

        

Is the USA in a better position now than 4 years ago ?

                                
 

       I read an analytical piece about the US economy by a Robert Samuelson, for the Washington Post Writers Group, who compares Obama led Democratic Government from the time he was about to get elected - Sept 2008 till now, Sept 2012, where he is again contesting for re-election. He compared numbers such as inflation year on year, property prices, real disposable per capita income , cost of petrol or gasoline, Dow Jones stock index, unemployment in terms of percentage, as well as confidence level about the economy.
      
     In short the big picture shows this :

     2012 vs end 2008
    ---------------------------

a) Property or asset prices : down 20%
b) Dow Jones index : up (60%)
c) Inflation YoY :   8%
d) Cost of Gasoline : up 108%
e) Unemployment : up from 7.8% to 8.1%
f)  Consumer confidence : up by 62%
g) Salaries (hourly earnings) :   up by 6% YoY
h) Jobs in millions  : down 0.2 %    (133.6 Million vs 133.3 Million)

        He summarised that it was almost the same levels, except for the huge jump in gasoline prices. Dow Jones was up 60% but to translate that to real terms is impossible to assess, as it depends on whether the majority of people are into stock and equities. 

       In short, it boiled down to unemployment, if people can get jobs, then they have a fixed revenue stream and they can plan their future and retirement, housing, starting families and their lives in general. 

      I would say, that the American economy is in a state of limbo and if the jobs situation has stagnated or gotten worse, then the Obama administration has failed. That is the bottom line. 
I am no economist, but people in the new economy need assistance in getting onto the first rung of society, ie. jobs. Its not the quality of jobs, but jobs in total, in numbers. 

      Obama's team has been saying, well give it some time for the bills to take effect, the jobs will come, that has been their mantra and meantime, the Fed Reserve goes and approves the printing of more money or Quantitative Easing 3, which is pumping US$ 40 billion into the economy by buying long term US bonds each month, which will ultimately go into the banks coffers. What do the banks do ? Will they will then offer loans to all and sundry and repackage the debt just like the recent subprime crisis ? Or will the money flow out into the higher growth havens like China,  or even the safe havens like Singapore and Switzerland and bolster the stock market assets and property markets - as it has before with massive flows of hot money after the QE 1 and QE 2 leading to astronomical property price per square foot  in Singapore never experienced historically. 

     So, the writer asks, are Americans pessimstic about the future or optimistic ? Its less about whether Americans are actually better off now than 4 years ago - perhaps things have stagnated - and more about whether they believe things will get better. 

    The best is yet to be ? Or the worst is yet to come ?