Tonight's the Night They Make History ! 2 - 1 Victors !

Tonight 8pm UK time, 4 am Singapore time, Wolves will host the champions elect Liverpool at Molineux and I have a feeling that they will finally be THE first team which beats Liverpool this season.

Liverpool has had an exceptional season no doubt and their front 3, Salah, Firminio and Mane are really world class. The game MUST be won at Midfield, and Neves, Moutinho, Doherty and Dendoncker (if he is pushed up front) can make history by controlling the centre of the park. They Must if Wolves have any chance of upsetting the form book.

The defence is also quite sieve like, so Wolves had better get their act together with 5 at back to shore up against Liverpool's so potent attack. 

IF Wolves can hold the fort defensively, not let in 1 or 2 goals in first half, control the game in the midfield, I would say, Wolves will win this game by 2 - 1 or 1 -0.

Tonight's the Night to Make History !

Let us Do it with Pride !  

Footnote (24th Jan 8.00 am) : Alas it was NOT to be ; they fought back from a goal down and at 1  - 1, Firmino stepped in with a sweet finish to make it Wolves 1 Liverpool 2.

It was a GREAT GAME nonetheless !  

Boogie Woogie Stump - Michael Alf Trio

Saints 2 Wolves 3 ; This Team has Fighting Spirit and Grit ; Champions in the Making

If there is any message or lesson to take away from this match is this. I am a fair weathered fan. I am sad to say, when things go bad for my team, I shy away and watch other channels or go to bed. 

If I am a hard core fan, I should continue rooting for the team until the very end of the game and time and again the brilliant Nuno Esperito Santos has shown us with his special team of players that they are indeed champions, in every sense of the word.

1. Never be disheartened

2. Things will be bad but there will be a day for improvement

3. NEVER EVER GIVE UP

4. True grit makes champions.

8 times on the trot, they go behind by 1 to 2 goals (2 goals down against Man City and now Southampton, 1 against Norwich, 1 against Newcastle, 1 against Liverpool and 2 against Watford).  3 of these times they gritted their teeth and fought back with FIERCE TENACITY.

3 times, they drew level. and 2 they lost. 

I need to up my support for this magnificent team. If not, I don't deserve to support them.

Reality Distortion and Addiction - Gambling.

                                       Rex Hotel, Ho Chi Minh City October 2019

I often play the logic numbers game called Sudoku. Every pattern or set of game sheets (if I can call it that) has a predetermined 'win' and it is based on 9 squares, in a grid of 3 rows and 3 columns. The player has to ensure that each square is filled only by the number 1 to 9 ONCE and each row and column also only has the number1 to 9 only once. There is no rule for diagonal numbers and there is no "0" in the game.

The level of difficulty starts from Easy or Gentle, to Medium to Hard to Very Hard and finally Diabolical (really suicidal) based on the numbers left in the grid. Well I have been playing for at least 12 years and have finally been able to finish diabloical levels quite easily but when I play the game I need to employ the following techniques or strategies :

1. Elimination by number similarity (either single, a pair or sometimes treble)
2. Counting from 1 to 9
3. Some logic 
4. Pairs elimination
5. Probability 
6. Gwendolin's string (when lost in the forest, go 1 way but remember where you turned
    so that you can revert back if you make the mistake)
7. Pure guesswork.

Now, that I find doing the sudoku challenges not so much a challenge, I turned to the game Solitaire. Now, I find myself 'hooked'. I question "why ?" 

Why am I subjecting myself to a computer game where the simulation or gaming software controls the outcome of the cards ?? Am I more attracted to risk at the hands of others ?

With that fact, I started reading on the net, why people love to play the game of 'chance' and try their luck at winning 4 D, the lottery (Toto as it is called in Singapore) or the casino with the myriad of games where the 'house' invariably wins 95% of the time ? 

Why ? 

After reading the post beow, I have decided NOT to play more than 3 games of Solitaire per night, perhaps I should take a walk to clear my tired mind, at the end of the day. 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Gambling is often called a “game of chance”. It evokes fun, random luck and a sense of collective engagement. These playful connotations may be part of why almost 85% of all adults gamble at some point in their in their lifetime. Lets look at closely to the definition of gambling.

It isn't always the casino. When we take risks in life, these actions whether calculated or not, also constitute 'gambling' be it in investments,plunging into the business world, a joint venture, being a director and owning equity in companies, the stock market, owing and speculating in property, and the occasional 4D or lottery. 

Why do people gamble ?  I would say : for  pleasure, money the thrill or the escapism from the boredom of life.

While these might be reasons why people gamble initially, psychologists don’t definitely know why, for some, gambling stops being an enjoyable diversion and becomes compulsive. What keeps people playing even when it stops being fun? Why stick with games people know are designed for them to lose? Are some people just more unlucky than the rest of us, or simply worse at calculating the odds?

Mike Robinson is Asst Prof at Wesleyan University in the US :   

Here is his take on it : (Reprinted from the website Fast Company) 

"As an addiction researcher for the past 15 years, I look to the brain to understand the hooks that make gambling so compelling. I’ve found that many are intentionally hidden in how the games are designed. And these hooks work on casual casino-goers just as well as they do on problem gamblers.

[Photo: Carl Raw/Unsplash]

UNCERTAINTY AS ITS OWN REWARD IN THE BRAIN

One of the hallmarks of gambling is its uncertainty–whether it’s the size of a jackpot or the probability of winning at all. And reward uncertainty plays a crucial role in gambling’s attraction.

Dopamine, the neurotransmitter the brain releases during enjoyable activities such as eating, sex and drugs, is also released during situations where the reward is uncertain. In fact dopamine release increases particularly during the moments leading up to a potential reward. This anticipation effect might explain why dopamine release parallels an individual’s levels of gambling “high” and the severity of his or her gambling addiction. It likely also plays a role in reinforcing the risk-taking behavior seen in gambling.

Studies have shown that the release of dopamine during gambling occurs in brain areas similar to those activated by taking drugs of abuse. In fact, similar to drugs, repeated exposure to gambling and uncertainty produces lasting changes in the human brain. These reward pathways, similar to those seen in individuals suffering from drug addiction, become hypersensitive. Animal studies suggest that these brain changes due to uncertainty can even enhance gamblers’ cravings and desire for addictive drugs.

Repeated exposure to gambling and uncertainty can even change how you respond to losing. Counterintuitively, in individuals with a gambling problem, losing money comes to trigger the rewarding release of dopamine almost to the same degree that winning does. As a result, in problem gamblers, losing sets off the urge to keep playing, rather than the disappointment that might prompt you to walk away, a phenomenon known as chasing losses.

[Photo: Steve Sawusch/Unsplash]

LIGHTS AND SOUNDS EGG YOU ON

But gambling is more than just winning and losing. It can be a whole immersive environment with an array of flashing lights and sounds. This is particularly true in a busy casino, but even a game or gambling app on a smartphone includes plenty of audio and visual frills to capture your attention.

But are they just frills? Studies suggest that these lights and sounds become more attractive and capable of triggering urges to play when they are paired with reward uncertainty. In particular, win-associated cues–such as jingles that vary in length and size as a function of jackpot size–both increase excitement and lead gamblers to overestimate how often they are winning. Crucially, they can also keep you gambling longer and encourage you to play faster.

[Photo: Flickr user kubina]

FEELING LIKE A WINNER WHILE YOU’RE LOSING

Since games of chance are set up so the house always has an advantage, a gambler wins infrequently at best. You might only rarely experience the lights and sounds that come along with hitting a true jackpot. However, the gaming industry may have devised a way to overcome that issue.

Over the last few decades, casinos and game manufacturers significantly upgraded slot machines, retiring the old mechanical arms and reels in favor of electronic versions known as electronic gaming machines. These new computerized games and online slots come with more attractive colorful lights and a variety of sounds. They also possess more reels, ushering in a new era of multi-line video slot machines.

Having multiple lines enables players to place a bunch of bets per spin, often up to 20 or more. Although each individual bet can be small, many players place the maximum number of bets on each spin. This strategy means a player can win on some lines while losing on others, netting less than the original wager. Even when you “win,” you don’t come out ahead, a phenomenon known as “losses disguised as wins.” Yet each win, even when it is a loss disguised as a win, comes with the lights and sounds of victory.

The result is that these multi-line slot machines produce more enjoyment and are highly preferred by players. Crucially, they tend to make gamblers overestimate how often they’re truly winning. The dramatic increase in the frequency of wins, whether real or fabricated, produces more arousal and activation of reward pathways in the brain, possibly accelerating the rate at which brain changes occur. Multi-line slots also seem to promote the development of “dark flow,” a trance-like state in which players get wholly absorbed in the game, sometimes for hours on end.

[Photo: Flickr user m01229]

ALMOST: NEAR-MISS EFFECT AND CHASING YOUR LOSSES

The rise of electronic gambling machines also means that rather than being constrained by the physical arrangement of different possible outcomes on each reel, possible outcomes are programmed onto a set of virtual reels. Gaming designers can, therefore, stack the deck to make certain events occur more frequently than others.

This includes near-misses, where one of the reels stops just short of lining up for a jackpot. These near-miss almost-wins recruit areas of the brain that usually respond to wins, and increase one’s desire to play more, especially in problem gamblers.

This phenomenon is not confined to slot machines and casinos. Near-misses play an integral part in the addictive potential of smartphone games like the very popular “Candy Crush.”

Near-misses are more arousing than losses–despite being more frustrating and significantly less pleasant than missing by a longshot. But crucially, almost winning triggers a more substantial urge to play than even winning itself. Near-misses seem to be highly motivating and increase player commitment to a game, resulting in individuals playing longer than they intended. The size of the dopamine response to a near-miss in fact correlates with the severity of an individual’s gambling addiction.

[Photo: Flickr user anokarina]

GAMBLING AND ITS GAMES

When you engage in recreational gambling, you are not simply playing against the odds, but also battling an enemy trained in the art of deceit and subterfuge. Games of chance have a vested interest in hooking players for longer and letting them eventually walk away with the impression they did better than chance, fostering a false impression of skill.

For many people, these carefully designed outcomes enhance the satisfaction they get from gambling. It may remain easy for them to simply walk away when the chips run out.

But gambling isn’t only a lighthearted promise of a good time and a possible jackpot. Up to 2% of the U.S. population are problem gamblers, suffering from what’s recently been reclassified as gambling disorder.

It stands out as one of the few addictions that doesn’t involve consumption of a substance, such as a drug. Like other forms of addiction, gambling disorder is a solitary and isolating experience. It’s tied to growing anxiety, and problem gamblers are at greater risk of suicide.

For these more susceptible individuals, the game designers’ hooks start to seem more sinister. A solution to life’s problems always feels just one spin away. "

Footnote : I do not own the rights to the above article as stated in "  .... ". 

I am sharing for knowledge dissemination. 

Possessing and Using Chauffer Knowledge is a Liability

I have been reading 1 chapter to 5 chapters  daily of this wonderful book by Rolf Dobelli

" The art of thinking clearly"

and trying to understand fully what these concepts mean and how to apply them in my never ending quest to first seek to understand a core concept or value, to be fully cognizant of the advantages, disadvantages and finally implementing it or discarding it in the scrapheap of my mind.

This idea of Chauffer Knowledge as written so beautifully by the psychologist Dr. Dobelli was first presented by Mr. Charlie Munger, who is Mr. Warren Buffett's (Berthshire Hathaway chairman and founder) partner.

Chauffer Knowledge is superficial knowledge which is picked up vicariously through many hours of chauffering an expert who has studied, researched and conducted experiments to validate theories (scientific for example).  

Mr. Munger told of this beautiful story of Max Planck, the famous German physicist who is credited with quantum mechanics theories and while he was alive, he was a popular and much sought after speaker in many Universities all over Europe and the world.

During those days pre-smart phone and the social media (early 20th century), Dr. Planck had a chauffer who brought him to all his talks and listened intently to Dr. Planck's lectures while understanding superficially the concept of quantum mechanics did not have the full 'domain knowledge' to BE Dr. Planck or even his student.

One day, the chauffer was feeling naughty and asked Dr. Planck, "sir, I have been driving you to all your lectures and talks and I know enough, much more than anyone else I know, so here is a little challenge for you. "

"Tomorrow you have this lecture at XYZ University, why not I take your place and present the talk, you can take a rest. And if I succeed in fooling everybody, you can buy me a nice dinner !" Dr. Planck laughed and agreed, as he wanted to see how this would end 

The next day, true to his word, at XYZ University, "Dr Planck" stepped up the podium and made a 1 hour lecture to his starry eyed attendees. Nobody could guess that this was his chauffer !  However, one Professor of physics was not too impressed and stood up to challenge "Dr Planck's" quantum mechanics hypothesis. So his years of study and research he put "Dr Planck" to the test or under the microscope !

"Dr Planck" stood transfixed as the Prof asked his question, and obviously he was at a loss for words... however he recovered his composure and confidently said :

"Now, my theories are so well researched and understood and I am surprised that you would ask such a question, even my "chauffer" who is sitting in the front row understands it.
I will give him the opportunity to answer you !!! "

My point is this, Chauffer Knowledge is indeed knowledge picked up superficially and vicariously. If you think your chauffer knowledge is able to get you through life's test or tribulations you are indeed wrong !

Make every effort to understand what you are intending to achieve, then go and painstakingly make representative models and discuss theories with all who are knowledgeable in it. 

Then you will attain some domain knowledge and with that some expertise.

There are lots of 'armchair' skiers, swimmers and marathon runners doling advice.

They will be the first to fail when their advice is put to the test in the actual swimming meet, ski run and marathon.

Do the time and you will be fine. 

 

  

Restaurant Mar do Inferno Cascais

Restaurant "Mar do Inferno"

Boca do Inferno

Situated just a stone's throw from Eurostars Cascais is the Boca do Inferno, which is a marvel to behold. Literally Hell's Mouth, the sight of it and the sounds of it are really unforgettable. See my earlier posts about that.

Meanwhile, when we first arrived at Cascais on 9th Dec 2019, we had to wait for our room to be ready and the concierge suggested we eat lunch at the Mar do Inferno. This seafood restaurant ("Restaurant de frutos do mar" ) is the second best seafood restaurant we have eaten in Portugal, the best being at the Mar a Vista at Ericeira. 

We made reservations with the concierge and it was a short walk (10 minutes) to the water wonder  where we were treated to a tremendous sight and a fabulous restaurant with great seafood next to it. 

Along the scenic and weather perfect route, we chanced by a "hot dog" stand, complete with chairs and tables to eat fast food and enjoy the scenery and to "live in the moment. " 

Piece de Resistance the "Seafood Platter"

Portugal is a country famous for its seafood, and their shellfish cuisine is second to none. I will not give a review here in this post, but it can be seen from the pictures that the seafood is freshly caught, and very very tasty.  

The portions are huge per person, so always ask the Maitre 'D if the food ordered is too much for the smaller Asian appetites. Most times, they will tell you exactly what you need to order and that is enough.

The wines, from the Port to the Sauvignion Blanc are first rate and inexpensive. So. remember the following for Portugal :

Food 

Seafood is tops. Wine Port is tops. Their desserts are superb, egg tart is world famous.

Scenery

So many nice beaches to visit. If I was 20 years younger I would learn to surf !

People

Generally very friendly ; English speakers serving in most restaurants 

Climate

Less cold than Northern Europe. Perhaps little snow only in the late winter months

Cost of living  

cheaper than Spain, France, Germany and UK. 

Its all about the Quality of our Relationships.

With Kim Soon Fang in Hong Kong in 2008 

There was a Harvard study whose findings were released in early 2000s which did extensive interviews for over 70,000 men. Men in general as a means to discover their paths, their lifestyles and their partners,children and loved ones.

The objective was to find out why some men lived longer than others and vice versa. Was it something in the water, the food they ate, the people they associated themselves with, the jobs, careers, friends, family, their pets and everything relating to their lives.

The interviews were carried out over 70 years and it started from when they were strapping and healthy young men in their early '70s till the time they lost contact with them, and / or when the men passed away.

With Hans Brys at his shop in 2016

One common  facet which was present with the men who reached their '80s. They may have been sickly by the time, some may have been fine and then many others had passed away. The common facet amongst men who lived the longest was that they were the HAPPIEST.

The attainment of happiness had nothing to do with their social standing, how much they earned in their productive economic years, nor the race nor the places where they lived be it in the cities or in the rural areas.

With family at Christmas 2015 

The fact that men were happy, and thus lived longer was that they had a good social network of friends and family within and without the community. People they could call upon to share their troubles, their fears, their frustrations and their hopes.

Men, have this big problem about opening up on their failings. This is one of the biggest stumbling blocks which ultimately affect men's health and their longevity of their lives as a consequence.

The quality of my relationship with my family and friends needs to be strong. To count on them and to be counted upon. In good times, and in bad. In sickness, in good health, in debt and in the heights of success and monetary blessings.  

That in a nutshell is how men, in particular can stay and remain happy throughout their lives. 

Carpe Diem