I scribe ; this is one of the things which define me.

Lovely Lunch Hosted by Gurdeep at SSC Jade Phoenix Chinese Restaurant

From Left : Gurdeep Singh, Faisal Alsagoff, Yong Wee Loon, Alan Symons,Tom Gan

Tomorrow I will officially join the Senior Citizen's Club. Although I am not looking forward  to watching and experiencing my body wither first hand, I believe, I can mitigate and lessen the deterioration of my body and mind by doing the following :

a) Have a regular exercise regimen of at least 5 days a week of either brisk walking, cycling, karate and some running. I have been rather tardy of late, and I want to remind myself never to let slip the aerobic exercise till the forseeable future.

b) Playing lots of mental games, such as Sudoku, Chess, mental mathematics and daily arithmetic (such as calculating the costs of purchases from the petrol station, foodstalls and the 7 -11.

c) Having as wide a circle of family and friends whom I can interact with 

d) Doing meaningful activities such as volunteerism, leadership in clubs and even mentorship to undergraduates.

e) Reading, writing, playing music as well as learning new languages while travelling.

Writing is one such passion which has withstood the test of time. Testament to this, is the fact that this blog has been around for 14 years plus and with views of coming to 150,000 it is still going strong. I am amazed people care to read what I have to put up in cyberspace, as I hardly am the greatest observer of geopolitics, sports. I only manage a small business and try to make as many trips overseas for business and leisure, to widen my perspective of the world. 

On that note, I am truly thankful to my maker for me making this far. 

While I am actively running my business, I am planning to slowly extricate myself from the day to day activities and move into business development, most probably in a foreign country as this will be the new 'target' for my SME in the next year or two.

I am very blessed and grateful I still have the good health, the mental faculties, the family and friend support and the financial knowhow to continue what I am doing - at least for the forseeable future.  I have to thank my wonderful and supportive wife who has been my greatest critic and bellweather for many things on a day to day basis.  

So,moving into the 60s is not such a scary proposition after all.

   

Get Yourself Covered by Critical Illness Insurance Now (50 y.o. and above)

 This is a community message to all the readers of this blog. I have 3 messages which may save your life, your quality of life and even the prolong the length of your life.

1. Get a colonscopy done if you are above the age of 50. 

In Singapore, the No. 1 cancer for men is colon cancer. The No. 2 cancer is Prostate. Colon cancer can and does occur in people (in particular) and people above 50 are more susceptible to it. A lot of men do not eat enough fibre, do not drink enough, and when they do, it is probably sugared drinks like the sodas, alcohol, wine or spirits.

The cancer cells normally take years to grow, and they most often appear as polyps which are harmless. These polyps if they are not removed can turn cancerous. Hence it is imperative to get a scope once every 5 years upon turning 50 and follow the routine from then on.

If the polyp (or 2 or more) is discovered, it is unlikely to be cancerous if detected early (like mine was). However, in my case, I need to go for a check before the end of 2025 - as mandated by the good surgeon. The technology nowadays is so advanced, than upon detection, the polyp can be removed either through burning (cauterise) or cutting (snare) using a small flexible device attached together with the scope but the risk can then be reduced to almost zero. 

Hence a good regimen of early detection can and does prolong my quality of life and possibly prolong my life.

2. Get covered by a Good Critical Illness insurance (if you already haven't done so) Now 

I was prescient to sign up over the years to Aviva Care, now called My SingLife by Aviva in 2006. The plan 1 (which includes Private Hospitals) covers all procedures as charged, but there is a minimum co-payment of 10% of the total bill. This is so essential for our later years, as one thing or another will crop up once we turn about 50, 55 or older. You are advised to check online on the types of critical illness coverage and choose one which suits your needs and budget.

Hence, as seen by the bills above, my total bill for the hospital procedure for colonscope and endoscope, plus medicine, plus surgeon fees was S$ 6,324.96. After deduction from the Insurance, and from my medisave, my out of pocket fess was  $534.14

I am grateful I have dutifully accumulated monies in my Medisave, as they will come in so handy as I age.   

Do choose an insurance package which covers your hospital stay too, as the prices of hospital charges are rising every few years. And you don't want to spend all your hard earned retirement money on excessive bills - that would sour your mood in your golden years. 

  

3. Take Up a Critical Illness (Term Insurance) Payout if you can afford it  

 I am considering taking up an Critical Illness Payout Insurance soon, as this will payout a lump sum upon detection of any of the  35 critical illnesses (most cancers,brain diseases) up to the age of (say) 70.

This is like betting that you are likely to get something critical during the early part of your golden years. But there is 0 cash value and you take back nothing upon reaching 70 years of age.

If you are diagnosed with something critical, the payouts are huge (S$200,000) with up to 5 payouts for similar (after 2 years) and other (after 1 year) illnesses up to a cap of $1,000,000. This is very useful because you will find the money handy and you need to wind up or retire from working full time.

Think about it. 

     

The Shadow of a Recession and possibly Stagflation.

We are all watching with bated breath at our neighbours' recent elections. At the time of writing, neither of the main opposition parties, PH or PN have enough seats to form a simple majority, let alone a 2/3rd majority in Parliament (for laws to be passed convincingly), so it is highly likely that a coalition of parties will be formed to make the next Government, with the smaller parties forming the opposition.

The whole situation from our immediate neighbour is of concern for us here in Singapore. We can actually see the drama of meetings between rival factions playing out from our handphones and while the dust will take some time to settle, I think the reality of a Parliament which is too finely balanced will be felt by all in Malaysia.

Every new move now on, will be populist in nature and in the overall scheme of things, a backward move for our neighbour. This is my opinion.  

In Singapore, while the ruling PAP has 90% of the seats, we can observe second hand how  having a weak Government will or will not benefit the ordinary lives of the people.

While inflation is now rearing its ugly head, Singaporeans of all walks of life will feel its bitter bite only in 2023. There is also the new 8% (from 7%) Goods and Services Tax which will come into play. The asset class such as landed property as well as condominiums in the central districts will be harder and harder to reach with each passing decade, I fear. This is only my opinion and not one which a straw poll of say 10000 citizens were taken and their views recorded.

In the early 90s based on a median combined salary of 2 professionals (S$8,000),if 30% or  $2400 per month was set aside to pay the mortgage, at 4%, a 1000 ft2 condominium of $600,000 in District 10 would take approximately 18  - 20 years of working to be fully paid IF the 30% downpayment or $180,000 is paid up in CPF and cash. That, and the fact that if one of them is retrenched, they better have savings to pay the ongoing mortgage. I know these numbers well, as I was part of that couple in the preceding paragraph. 

Now, in the early 2020s, this same Condominium of size 1000 ft2 will cost  $2.5 Million or 4 times that in the early 90s. Given that the mortgage rates are now 4%, and the new median salary of 2 working professionals is now say $ 12,000 (or only 1.5 times that of the early 90s). Given that 30% is approximately $4,000 per month.

If the 20% downpayment (now with parents' help) of $500,000 is magically coughed out ($200,000 to 300,000 is more realistic). Then for a $2,000,000 loan....

It is likely that this young aspiring couple would have to work... 40 years just to pay off the principal and interest - the loan may balloon to $3,600,000 (simple interest 4% over say 20 years) and maybe, one day they can own the condominium. This is based on the assumption that the next 40 years we do not see another (or 3 or more) major worldwide recession. The impact will be jobs losses, people will be forced to downsize , resize or worse. 

It may reach a stage, if the economy stalls for a number of years, then we have stagflation. 

It all makes for a depressing outlook. 

Of course, this is all conjecture on my part. But so called economists have been calling out a Great Recession for over 2 years now.  

In summary, asset prices have jumped 4 to 5 times, while true earning capacity has at best doubled in the short span of 30 years. In addition, food, transport and energy prices all have risen. 

Of course, it would be still OK, if the economy was chugging fine and salaries are going up, property prices are still climbing.

What if, it all goes SOUTH for 2 years ???

Well the property prices will be falling, but can people sell them off faster than they can sell them ? It depends.

A loan of 2 Million will still be $2 million regardless if you sold your $2 Million house for $1.6 million or $2.5 million. The debt must be repaid. 

I shudder to think of the scenarios for those who are over leveraged with million dollar loans on their declining assets. 

Our elections are slated only in 2025, but n theory they can be called as early as mid 2024.

When a country has a Government which has very little or no power, it is not a good development.

Many things can and will go SOUTH with just one election outcome. 

Just look at our neighbour up north.... 

 

Happiness

Our House 

Happiness ? What is it. Simply stated, it is a  transient emotion of each an every person.

The world has been gaga about trying to achieve 'happiness' amongst all the countries in the last 40 to 50 years that  there are numerous country Happiness Indexes, Charts, Quick Fixes, it makes you wonder.

Is Happiness measurable ? Happiness varies from person to person. 

Some people find happiness in eating good food.

Some others in solitude, or in vacationing, or going to karaoke to sing.

Others like the current generation, like to play VR team games  

In Maslow's heirarchy of needs, human basic needs are the of access food, clothing, shelter and safety. After these 4 are satisfied, the needs become more esoteric and the so called 'rights', freedoms and self determination of the individual becomes more pressing.   

Does being rich make you happy ? 

Not necessarily so.

With so much wealth there comes infighting within your family and loved ones, it is not a given but there is so much envy amongst the cohort when they see that you have made it, that sometimes very rich people withdraw from society and hence have few friends which they truly call friends.

If you are the top student in your class or year will this make you happy ?

Perhaps, but you then have the weight or expectation that you have to perform and be cleverer than the rest from today. That will weigh you down. 

If you are handsome and have many friends, are you truly happy ?

See the numerous KPop and Hollywood stars, musicians  and actors who committed suicide at the peak of their careers. They were lonely and dreadfully unhappy. 

Goo Hara, Robin Williams, Kate Spade, Anthony Bourdain are but just 4 who come to my mind.

Being Happy - it is a state of mind for each individual.

1. Staying Relevant and Doing Good.

To be happy, one needs to be doing something meaningful. He may be earning a salary and on the side, he is volunteering at the soup kitchen or in the Buddhist lodge preparing food for the elderly sick.

On the other hand, someone may be raising a family and / or tending to an elder in the family who is slowly getting Alzeimer's (for example). These may make people happy  knowing they are relevant and doing good. 

I have been extremely fortunate to own land in Singapore, thanks to my family's inheritance of  a small house in the central part of Singapore. We spent quite a small fortune tearing down the old house to completely rebuild a new one so the picture above is the 'new' house.

The property is fully paid. This means that we have no mortgage over our heads at this juncture where I turn 60 in a week's time. This I am very happy about. You must have read that mortgage rates have been skyrocketing this past year to over 4% and homeowners who have bought properties in land scare Singapore must be quite concerned with their mortgages now practically double of what it used to be just 5 years ago.

I have managed a total of 4 companies and one is doing reasonably well, so I am aiming to sell this profitable business to investors in the coming months and years. It is not a good thing to hold on to material goods, buildings and assets. It is better to exit while I still am near the peak of health and do things which enrich my inner being. 

I titled this post happiness, because in Singapore, as in many capital cities in the developed world, we need to find our Ikigai or our meaning for living. Every person's Ikigai is truly personal to himself and mine is only known to myself. I started setting life goals over 20 years ago and to date, I have attained some and have failed miserably in others.

Set personal life goals, attain them within reasonable amount of time. I do set goals every year since the year 2000.

2. Sometimes, one has to make sacrifices but in the end, he or she will be Happy

Sacrifices - to achieve your goals be prepared to Sacrifice some of your long held luxuries.

There will be sacrifices for sure, like becoming a married person, and a father, then as a caregiver to my aged parents. But at every few years, stop, take a look at your life goals, if you have achieved them, you will be happy. If not, keep plugging on. 

3. If your set goals are unrealistic - be strong and change them

If they are unrealistic to achieve, change them to more realistic ones. Don't compare yourself with the Joneses or the best of the best. Happiness is at best a transient state of mind. If you find someone who is always happy and laughing at nothing, you would think he had some mental illness wouldn't you ?? 

I am happy in my own skin, come what may. The outlook for the world economy is bleak, but somehow I think that I will overcome whatever life throws at me, curve ball or straight ball included.

I am determined to attain a major personal goal in the next  3 years. (2023 and / or 2024).

Dont go Searching for Quick Bucks or Get Rich Quick Scheme.

I know (at last count) 4 friends and family who  have all all of the below : 

1. They think they are very smart (better than other people)

2. Always searching for schemes or or ideas  to quick bucks to make in as short a time as possible

3. Lazy 

4. Forever talking about how great their abilities are.

They all share similar life experiences (with the exception of 1) :

1. Divorce / death from their partner 

2. Still at Square One of their lives in terms of financial status (not a good barometer but I persist to use it). Material status and wealth can bring on the good life and some degree of satisfaction. 

3. Very (too) open to new ideas from 'friends' and never really stress these ideas before jumping in to either invest, participate and critically assess the validity and success proofing of the new innovation.

4. They are ostracised from their mainstream friends and family. Many people certainly do not share in their enthusiasm but they remain childlike in their gullibility and perhaps naivete.

The sad part, is that they think they are 'somewhere' and demand a certain entitlement. The reality of it all, is that they are 'nowhere' and their current situation is blamed normally to 'fate'.

I don't pity them as these people chose to take this path and were very self righteous and entitled about taking their shot and making it big. 

I try to stay away from such people, as their aura is toxic and can be a drag to my path towards achieving my short term and long term goals.

I would be happy to have a coffee with them, but I would not want to be in their inner circles, and neither would I want to waste too much time with their presence.

Time is of the essence, and these quick bucks schemes normally attract a certain breed of people, I call them the lazy opportunists, who may strike it good once in a while but the reality of it all, is that they would not get very far with these get rich quick schemes.

To make it really big, one needs a confluence of factors, with varying importance at each times, so it is never a static equation. While I am slogging away at my small business , I am still optimistic I can at least get a good retirement nest egg and continuing to do good to the less fortunate. 

 

Seize the Day Brothers and Sisters. 

 

QRA International - Up for Sale for the Right Price

 

After almost 20 years in the business, I am working towards an exit. The company I founded QRA International is looking for new owners and buyers with interest. The strong points for the company :

a) 20 years (founded in 2003) in the business with sales to 8 countries in Asia, Middle East and Australia.

b) Strong and Established Presence in :

1. Environmental Test Chambers

2. Test Services (for Medical and Pharmacuetical) Dominant player with long term outlook

3. 20 test equipment in 2 Laboratories with assets of over US$ 250,000

4. Strong track record of previous sales to top Government and multinational companies 

5. 7 out the last 8 years, we are profitable, including FY 20, 21 and 22. 

Check out the SGP Grid's unbiased assessment of QRA International

https://sgpgrid.com/company-details/qra-international-pte-ltd

c) New Blue Ocean strategic product in new emerging industry for the next 20 years.

Interested Parties please write in to :

a) mark@qra.com.sg 

b) qrasales@qra.com.sg 

and we can take the discussion or expressions of interest accordingly.

Uncertainty is the new Norm.

 

    This is the year so many uncertain things turned for the worse, globally. 

1. Russia unilaterally declared war against Ukraine and as a result, oil sanctions were imposed by the Western powers and oil prices spiked leading to ramping up of electricity costs and rapid inflation. The influx of many Ukrainians to all the neighbouring countries has also led to major societal isssue.

2. The stopping of the Nordstream gas pipelines to Europe by Russia has and will make this winter, a winter of discontent and misery for many living in Western Europe. There are numerous heartbreak cases of people living on social welfare forcing to choose between staying warm at home and feeding the family. It has gotten this bad.

3. COVID - 19 hes been brought to an endemic game worldide, with the exception of China. While the world has opened up with travel back to the pre-COVID days, China is in a state of long drawn out COVID management with further restrictions and lockdowns in multiple cities and regions. This is thus hampering and hiking businessescosts  all over China. Costs of material goods are climbing and the flow of Chinese visitors overseas has dropped by 90%, a tremendous drop. The 2 major industries impacted by the lack of Chinese tourists and visitors in the last 10 years are :

a) Tourism

b) Real Estate  

3. The fanning of the war drums between US and China over Taiwan continues unabated. The state of the Semiconductor industry is now in a very tumultous state, as US has banned all sales of chips directly or indirectly from countries outside China , with Taiwan's TSMC taking the biggest hit as it produces over 50% of the latest microchips for all manner of devices, from cars, spacecraft, weapons, satellites, you name it.

4. Sri Lanka has gone bankrupt. Due to over exposure to Chinese loans which turned bad, made worse by the shutting off of the supply of China tourists, oil prices skyrocketing and the currency of the Sri Lankan rupee in free fall led to the President fleeing the country.

5. Many of us are facing huge inflationary pressures on food, and basic necessities.

6. Everything is going south, assets, cryptocurrency, equities. There is no upside, with the exception of a) savings bonds, b) treasury bills c) 

Property ?  Maybe a correction or drop by (at most) 20% ; Maybe 

With all the major economies all facing drops (especially China) in the property values, it is a mystery that Singapore property still is resilient in the face of all these global uncertainties. I can only guess the reasons :

a) Singapore is very stable, and a safe haven for rich investors who are spooked by the geopolitical swings and want to put their monies in a safe place with a stable Government.

b)  Singapore's business environment is welcoming and very easy to setup new businesses with very little bureaucratic paperwork.

c) The amount of land in Singapore is limited (Island), hence the baseline prices should remain relatively stable, although in the event of a major recession next year many people will be force selling their apartments or houses as the mortgage rates and climbs. Couple that with an uncertain work environment, with numerous job cuts (the latest in the IT and Tech sector), you will have numerous challenges if one of the working class person is laid off and partly or wholly responsible for repaying the home mortgage.

In the event of a bad recession in 2023, then the home prices will drop. By what extent is anybody's guess. If there is a technical price correction, I believe the prices will fall by (at most) 20% as the Singapore developers are cash rich and can hold on to their new launch prices.

So be prepared for an uncertain 2023 folks.

Carpe Diem