Uncertainty is the new Norm.

 

    This is the year so many uncertain things turned for the worse, globally. 

1. Russia unilaterally declared war against Ukraine and as a result, oil sanctions were imposed by the Western powers and oil prices spiked leading to ramping up of electricity costs and rapid inflation. The influx of many Ukrainians to all the neighbouring countries has also led to major societal isssue.

2. The stopping of the Nordstream gas pipelines to Europe by Russia has and will make this winter, a winter of discontent and misery for many living in Western Europe. There are numerous heartbreak cases of people living on social welfare forcing to choose between staying warm at home and feeding the family. It has gotten this bad.

3. COVID - 19 hes been brought to an endemic game worldide, with the exception of China. While the world has opened up with travel back to the pre-COVID days, China is in a state of long drawn out COVID management with further restrictions and lockdowns in multiple cities and regions. This is thus hampering and hiking businessescosts  all over China. Costs of material goods are climbing and the flow of Chinese visitors overseas has dropped by 90%, a tremendous drop. The 2 major industries impacted by the lack of Chinese tourists and visitors in the last 10 years are :

a) Tourism

b) Real Estate  

3. The fanning of the war drums between US and China over Taiwan continues unabated. The state of the Semiconductor industry is now in a very tumultous state, as US has banned all sales of chips directly or indirectly from countries outside China , with Taiwan's TSMC taking the biggest hit as it produces over 50% of the latest microchips for all manner of devices, from cars, spacecraft, weapons, satellites, you name it.

4. Sri Lanka has gone bankrupt. Due to over exposure to Chinese loans which turned bad, made worse by the shutting off of the supply of China tourists, oil prices skyrocketing and the currency of the Sri Lankan rupee in free fall led to the President fleeing the country.

5. Many of us are facing huge inflationary pressures on food, and basic necessities.

6. Everything is going south, assets, cryptocurrency, equities. There is no upside, with the exception of a) savings bonds, b) treasury bills c) 

Property ?  Maybe a correction or drop by (at most) 20% ; Maybe 

With all the major economies all facing drops (especially China) in the property values, it is a mystery that Singapore property still is resilient in the face of all these global uncertainties. I can only guess the reasons :

a) Singapore is very stable, and a safe haven for rich investors who are spooked by the geopolitical swings and want to put their monies in a safe place with a stable Government.

b)  Singapore's business environment is welcoming and very easy to setup new businesses with very little bureaucratic paperwork.

c) The amount of land in Singapore is limited (Island), hence the baseline prices should remain relatively stable, although in the event of a major recession next year many people will be force selling their apartments or houses as the mortgage rates and climbs. Couple that with an uncertain work environment, with numerous job cuts (the latest in the IT and Tech sector), you will have numerous challenges if one of the working class person is laid off and partly or wholly responsible for repaying the home mortgage.

In the event of a bad recession in 2023, then the home prices will drop. By what extent is anybody's guess. If there is a technical price correction, I believe the prices will fall by (at most) 20% as the Singapore developers are cash rich and can hold on to their new launch prices.

So be prepared for an uncertain 2023 folks.

Carpe Diem