Confirmation Bias - 99% do it ; 1 % actually rise above it.

Confirmation Bias. This is so eloquently written by the psychologist Ralf Dobelli in his standout book "The Art of Thinking Clearly" which has been on the bestseller charts for years. A Swiss national by birth, I am very fascinated by this concept Confirmation Bias.

Essentially, many of us think we are very clever. Cleverer than the person next to you. If that is the case, what justifies the normal distribution curve (standard deviation) in society for IQ ? Or EQ for that matter. If everyone was so smart, there would be no 'ordinary people' in our midst.

Dobelli cited, this case of the professor who put this little experiment to a test. The esteemed professor wrote on the whiteboard the 3 numbers :

" 2 , 4 , 6 ... " 

and asked the class to do the following :

a) state the next number in the series

b) what was the basis or logic for their guess ?

He told the whole class that he had written down the basis or logic for the series of numbers.

So, 90% of the class wrote the number "8". The basis or logic for the next number was that the series was a linear arithmetic addition of 2 to the previous number.

The professor replied : "No" that was not correct.

Many in the class went " Huh ?"

We have been taught for years in primary and secondary schools arithmetic, calculus, algebra, integration and differentiation that we assume that these series are the be all the in the logical sequence of things.

Not true. 

Hence our Confirmation Bias is such that when confronted with a problem such as this, we are sure, cocksure of our theorems that it must be the correct answer - by all accounts, it may be. But it could be a subset of a much more complex or even simpler sequence.

However, as time goes by and the sequence gets expanded, we find out we are wrong and we fall flat in our face.

We all have this Confirmation Bias in our Minds. 

Answer

The logic in the Prof's mind was this " the next number must be higher than the previous one in the string"

Hence, 5,7, 10, 15 all qualifies as being correct. 

To Do 

Always fact check, and test out your theory with more data. If some doesn't fit your theory, Question your theory as being wrong. 

Many heads studying the approach and giving honest opinions MAY be better than just your own. It improves the chances of your theory ultimately being the right one.

So Question and find faults in your theory. After numerous iterations and more data, can you say, tentatively that it is correct. 

Don't let ego get the better of you. If you do, you ultimately FAIL.

  

My 10 Rules of life

Today's 8K run at ECP ; Selfie taken at Car Park at Finish

I am 9 months shy of turning or reaching the big sixth decade of my life. Lessons, I have learnt aplenty.

Takeaways, I have also had the opportunity of savouring what this life can offer, both the good, the bad and the ugly. I believe that to make our lives meaningful, we need purpose and a Raison D'ete to get ourselves out of bed every morning.

The challenge for 2022 for my business is to step up to be an SME of quality and reputation.

Personally, I hope that I can continue to stay focussed on my goals and not be too arrogant when things go my way, and not to lose heart when they don't. Planning, and execution require lots and lots of focus, brainstorming and luck. The more you try, the more lucky you get.

My 10 Rules 

1.   Have an audacious goal 

2.   Strive 110% to achieve it ; make sure it is realistic and doesn't break your piggy        bank.

3.   Learn from mistakes, yours and others.

4.   Don't make promises you cannot keep

5.   What you earn for the month, save at least 20%

6.   Help the less advantaged

7.   Be Humble

8.   Be Gutsy

9.   Get multiple streams of income 

10. Go Live Life. YOLO 

 

Tiger Year 1986 Uncirculated Coin Set - Singapore

 

Fast Paced Run today 6th Feb at Pandan Reservoir 6.30 pm

Today's run at Pandan Crescent was a very satisfying one for me from a few standpoints.

1. I have been feeling a little 'low' what with the lack of work from the 5 day break for the Chinese New Year.

2. This year is a breakthrough year, and I need to have all the energy, luck and wearwithall to push hard to achieve all the potential my company has shown and will continue to show in the coming weeks, months. It is a truly exciting, yet I need to be brave to take on ventures and manage the risk / opportunity properly. One mistake could ruin the whole decades long struggle for stability and profitability.   
 

3. Lately I have also felt that the call of age has been beckoning me. I am slowing, in terms of my metabolic rate, my stamina, strength, balance and flexibility are deteriorating - much to my dismay. This is life, as I age, I need to develop further a sense of humor so that I can age 'gracefully'. When I am ready to retire or hand over the reins, I wish that I can still enjoy a certain quality of life such as 

a) enjoying good meals with great company

b) savoring the scenery here and abroad. Nature has given us this Earth and we must stop terrorising it and making it unliveable.

c) Having a good laugh at myself and the world around me. Laughter is the best medicine for life.

d) Having the wits to fully appreciate humor, wisdom, deep intellectual stimuli, cut and thrust debates, sarcasm, irony, and appreciate the nuances of language.

e) Going to new places (my goal - another 30 more countries). I have visited or worked in about 40 countries at the last guess.  

f) Enjoy and savour new experiences. 

Life and the passage of time is zipping by. While I feel the aches and pains of my physical body, my mental and spiritual side remain strong and wanting uplift from time to time.

Giving back to society will be part of my plan for this Year of the Water Tiger.

I will live it with purpose.

Carpe Diem. 

Evening Walk at Roppongi Hills Tokyo June 2021

This is my attempt at sharing other people's videos with the intent of them doing the same to my Youtube videos one day. 

This is taken roughly 8 months back, during the height of the COVID 19 and people are seen (as in Singapore) wearing masks of all varieties and colours.

Enjoy this short 'tour'.

 

Accelerated Aging Tests for Medical Products

This is the video of QRA International Test Laboratory. The company provides accelerated aging for all kinds of test devices including medical products. Here is a view of one of our 2 Laboratories located in western part of Singapore.

Products manufactured in factories will normally have an expiry date set on their packaging. How do the manufacturers know whether their products can actually perform as well as when the day they were made in the factory ? They use stress screening techniques which are basically elevated temperatures and controlled humidities with some reference to the Arrhenius equation. The 'aging' of a product is essentially halves the expiry date for every 10 deg increase in temperature. So if the product is designed to last for 3 years, then for an expected storage life of 3 years, then if it is designed to sit in the store or clinic at 30 deg C (average), the elevated temperature of 40 will mean that the test needs to run for 36 /2 (divide by 2) or 18 months to achieve the same 'aging' than if it was at 30 deg C. At 50 deg C (or 20 deg C above 30), that same aging 'result' will only take 9 months or 18 / 2.

The 'aging' using elevated temperatures and humidities are well documented and recorded in ASTM standards for medical, electronic and pharmaceutical products and devices.

The subsequent tests to determine the extent of the 'aging' is company proprietary and the Lab has no stake in determining those effects.

 

 

Chinese New Year Blessings over the Loh Hei Dish

Here is the Yu Sheng Toss with the Chinese New Year 'Blessings'.  

Niece Barbara preparing for the Lo Hei greetings as she usually does every Chinese New Year 

 

If I Write a Book ? I will Title it " Moron's Guide to Surviving Projects and Making Money "

There are literally hundreds of authors and thousands of wanna be authors in Singapore. This is just a guesstimate and everyone from the top civil servants, journalists, someone who has made his money in the corporate world, ex forex traders, motivational speakers and the like have written about their experiences.

I think, sooner or later I wish to throw my hat into this small ring. Why ? Self expression is very high up my list on the bucket list and what better way to express myself in the form which I am most accustomed to, and I think I do it in a unique and straightforward way.

I have had my essays (in English) read out many times from Secondary to post secondary school so I hazard that my writing skills are pretty good.

My writings can sometimes be about the mundane (rain dance in my open air shower) to the rather complex (Theory of Relativity). Strangers have commented that they like some of the information there, and I have managed to connect with at least half a dozen people  from my father's era (NUSS society) to mine (2 friends who are residing in Sydney and US respectively) as well as my son's friends have made comments and we have connected thus by the more established Whatsapp and other social media.

My book, when I get around to starting it (hopefully by middle of this year) will be about the trials and tribulations of an SME owner. Yes, the 'orphans' and long neglected entities who comprise about 90% of the companies in Singapore.

Many are sole propreitorships, partnerships or Pte Ltd companies with revenue of way below one hundred thousand dollars annually. When they do try to scale up by undertaking projects, they are normally shunned, unless they have people who have proven track records to handle the mega projects. My company was fortunate enough to be awarded 2 such projects in Singapore and both, in my humble opinion, were especially fraught with many uncertainties, stress points and multiple challenges on the technical, communication, logistic and financial standpoints.

Our company weathered all the storms and matured tremendously (me for one) as a director. I have learned hard truths about large projects. Here are a few life experiences which I have learned.

a) during the Request for Quotation stage ; there is a lot of research into what theses companies want. However, many a times, the demands or requirements sought by these esteemed companies MAY NOT be realistically developed or delivered within the time frame allotted for it. 

1.Always do a complete Risk Analysis for the technical competencies which your company is prepared to take. Sometimes it is a Bridge Too Far and if your company falls short of the technical deliverables, you the vendor are liable for Liquidated Damages for the non or partial compliance of the specifications. This drawn out battle for the completion and ultimate handover of the project can mean the difference of your company making it or going bankrupt. So be very careful ! If the risk is too great, always step back and consider multiple times before taking on the project. 

Better to walk away with your shirt on your back than to appear like the BIG BOY and walk away with no shirt.

We always overestimate our abilities 99% of the time. It is human nature.

Thats why only 1% succeed in life, and 99% think they can do but ultimately fail when put to the test. 

Be very careful for promising the unreachable. If it is something way out of the ordinary and your manufacturer / supplier says they can do it, CHECK the background for the supplier to see if they truly walk the talk.

My Motto : Undercommittment to the tender specification (that is, only go for tenders which your company can do 80 - 90% of the time with ease. The last 10% will be pushing the upper limit of the business technicality which I think can be surmounted with technical competency for most companies. 

Overdeliver to the equipment delivered. 

2. The people who do the request for  quotes are normally the Vanguard of the company (the front reconnaisance). Many times, the project is delivered on site and then in comes certain people who will be the turbulent gamechangers and drag the project handover till way over the due date. They raise many unfair requests after the equipment is delivered and drag payment unnecessarily

Who loses ? the small guys SME because they do not have the financial muscle to weather the "unreasonable" requests. We are facing one such issue now. Luckily we have collected 80% of the project costs, so the delay while major, is not affecting our main cashflow but the end profit. Nonetheless, it is important to collect as much as possible and as quickly as possible without ensuring or enduring long and costly legal battles. Only the lawyers benefit if that happens. 

Lesson Here : Collect as Much money upfront. 50 or 70% of the total project costs we aim to collect from customers. It is very tough especially from Government companies, so we must have very high profit margins  given the uniqueness of the project, the long unforseen commission times and the turbulent or chaos which will ultimately ensue if certain performance criterion are not met. 

An ironic situation was one which we encountered some five years ago, a big Government project was tendered and we were the final selected company. During the tender award process, our small company insisted that we needed 50% downpayment for the costs to pay supplier and other contractors etc. The Govt company indicated that we could get 50% downpayment only on condition if our company put up a Banker's Guarantee of that same 50%. The irony of it all, and I told the client, if we could ourselves put up 50% Banker's Guarantee (which is essentially a bank who will guarantee the 50% amount in the event of a default by our company) we would not have needed to ask for the downpayment !

Hence big projects and large tenders favour big companies with their strong balance sheets, huge corporate facilities and inhouse legal teams. Our small SMEs only have technical competancy, passion for doing the project and some get up gung ho !

We are definately at the disadvantage !

High Margin, Collect as Much as possible upfront, if not do a realist cost benefit analysis to see if indeed you are able to swallow payments of up to 50% of the project costs and waiting for over 1 year to collect back the costs once the project is finally signed off.

If the Risk is too High, Walk Away. It is easier to make money from low hanging fruits from regular paying customers than from one off big projects which only look good but do not fully pay the bills. Many companies go bust when they are doing fine, because of one of 3 factors:

a) Venture into totally new markets and get manipulated owing to political and Governmental change in rulings

b) Venture in totally unfamiliar industries in the name of Business Development

c) Stay stuck in the old 20th century way of doing things while most other more nimble companies have pivoted and gone into Digital Marketing and cast their nets worldwide.  

In Summary ; for jobs requiring Project Management :

1. Undercommit and Overdeliver to the Project. That means if your team can (safely) deliver and handover the project in 9 months, add another 25% to 30% lead time, so prooffer 12 months delivery and handover time. This eases pressure off your project team and you as the team lead.

2.  Be wary of the Hidden Turbulent Factor which may come in the form of a very finicky scientist, end user or senior management who will never show up in the discussion phase but will show up after everything is delivered and always make life difficult and downright distressing during the commissioning phase with his or her endless requirements for the 'perfect' equipment which they will never use 95% to 99% of the time. The 'just in case' specification is always the main contention point between the big client and small supplier. 

We as small vendors or suppliers want to quickly commission and handover the project so that we can collect all the sales revenue and move on to the next project. They, on the other hand have other things on their minds.....

3. Collect as Much Money Upfront - cover the cost of the equipment and then some. Whatever is 'stuck' is usually the tail end of the profit. 

Cashflow is No. 1 priority for companies to exist. 

Profitability is next. 

However collecting cash with no profit or loss making will run your ship aground. Be warned !

4. Complete the Handover as Quickly as Possible 

5. Have a Fine Balance of chasing High Profit and Good Cashflow from multiple customers - if that is possible.

Find such customers and stick to them like glue. A top customer is so hard to find ! 

6. Do a Risk Check every year and See if Storms are approaching.  

Sometimes, the boats in the harbour are spared the worst of the storm. 

Wishing One and All a Wonderful Year of the Water Tiger !

 

Here's wishing one and all, near and far a healthy, happy,prosperous, family strengthening and business uplifting Year of the Water Tiger !!  May all your goals, dreams, plans and hopes for this year of (hopefully) Post Covid come true in every way ! 

My wish for the 2022 Year of the Water Tiger ? Just an ordinary citizen's thoughts. 

1. No major wars between the superpowers, US, China and the Ukraine front de-escalates from its very tense standoff situation now.

2. US and China can somehow cooperate and reduce trade tensions and tariffs between them, so that we can all co-exist peacefully.

3. My son, Andrew to finish his Computer Science Degree in University of Queensland by this calendar year (2022) and come back to Singapore.

4. My business continues to strengthen its presence in the Lab Testing for Medical and Pharmaceutical space.

5. Our health for our family continues to be stable, and God willing, we can resume holiday travel in the second half of 2022.

6. Singaporeans of all ages, creeds and social status continue to strive for a 'One United People' and reduce any thoughts of Xenophobia as we once were a country of immigrants about 150 years ago. There should not be a 'them versus us' but a 'we'. 

6. Do more to help the disenfranchised in our society. I have often repeated it but this year I will do something. 

Xin Nian Kuai Le ! Wan Shi Ru Yi ! Bu Bu Gao Sheng, Sheng Yi Xin Rong !

                                    HUAT AH ! HUAT AH !