Chinese New Year Blessings over the Loh Hei Dish

Here is the Yu Sheng Toss with the Chinese New Year 'Blessings'.  

Niece Barbara preparing for the Lo Hei greetings as she usually does every Chinese New Year 

 

If I Write a Book ? I will Title it " Moron's Guide to Surviving Projects and Making Money "

There are literally hundreds of authors and thousands of wanna be authors in Singapore. This is just a guesstimate and everyone from the top civil servants, journalists, someone who has made his money in the corporate world, ex forex traders, motivational speakers and the like have written about their experiences.

I think, sooner or later I wish to throw my hat into this small ring. Why ? Self expression is very high up my list on the bucket list and what better way to express myself in the form which I am most accustomed to, and I think I do it in a unique and straightforward way.

I have had my essays (in English) read out many times from Secondary to post secondary school so I hazard that my writing skills are pretty good.

My writings can sometimes be about the mundane (rain dance in my open air shower) to the rather complex (Theory of Relativity). Strangers have commented that they like some of the information there, and I have managed to connect with at least half a dozen people  from my father's era (NUSS society) to mine (2 friends who are residing in Sydney and US respectively) as well as my son's friends have made comments and we have connected thus by the more established Whatsapp and other social media.

My book, when I get around to starting it (hopefully by middle of this year) will be about the trials and tribulations of an SME owner. Yes, the 'orphans' and long neglected entities who comprise about 90% of the companies in Singapore.

Many are sole propreitorships, partnerships or Pte Ltd companies with revenue of way below one hundred thousand dollars annually. When they do try to scale up by undertaking projects, they are normally shunned, unless they have people who have proven track records to handle the mega projects. My company was fortunate enough to be awarded 2 such projects in Singapore and both, in my humble opinion, were especially fraught with many uncertainties, stress points and multiple challenges on the technical, communication, logistic and financial standpoints.

Our company weathered all the storms and matured tremendously (me for one) as a director. I have learned hard truths about large projects. Here are a few life experiences which I have learned.

a) during the Request for Quotation stage ; there is a lot of research into what theses companies want. However, many a times, the demands or requirements sought by these esteemed companies MAY NOT be realistically developed or delivered within the time frame allotted for it. 

1.Always do a complete Risk Analysis for the technical competencies which your company is prepared to take. Sometimes it is a Bridge Too Far and if your company falls short of the technical deliverables, you the vendor are liable for Liquidated Damages for the non or partial compliance of the specifications. This drawn out battle for the completion and ultimate handover of the project can mean the difference of your company making it or going bankrupt. So be very careful ! If the risk is too great, always step back and consider multiple times before taking on the project. 

Better to walk away with your shirt on your back than to appear like the BIG BOY and walk away with no shirt.

We always overestimate our abilities 99% of the time. It is human nature.

Thats why only 1% succeed in life, and 99% think they can do but ultimately fail when put to the test. 

Be very careful for promising the unreachable. If it is something way out of the ordinary and your manufacturer / supplier says they can do it, CHECK the background for the supplier to see if they truly walk the talk.

My Motto : Undercommittment to the tender specification (that is, only go for tenders which your company can do 80 - 90% of the time with ease. The last 10% will be pushing the upper limit of the business technicality which I think can be surmounted with technical competency for most companies. 

Overdeliver to the equipment delivered. 

2. The people who do the request for  quotes are normally the Vanguard of the company (the front reconnaisance). Many times, the project is delivered on site and then in comes certain people who will be the turbulent gamechangers and drag the project handover till way over the due date. They raise many unfair requests after the equipment is delivered and drag payment unnecessarily

Who loses ? the small guys SME because they do not have the financial muscle to weather the "unreasonable" requests. We are facing one such issue now. Luckily we have collected 80% of the project costs, so the delay while major, is not affecting our main cashflow but the end profit. Nonetheless, it is important to collect as much as possible and as quickly as possible without ensuring or enduring long and costly legal battles. Only the lawyers benefit if that happens. 

Lesson Here : Collect as Much money upfront. 50 or 70% of the total project costs we aim to collect from customers. It is very tough especially from Government companies, so we must have very high profit margins  given the uniqueness of the project, the long unforseen commission times and the turbulent or chaos which will ultimately ensue if certain performance criterion are not met. 

An ironic situation was one which we encountered some five years ago, a big Government project was tendered and we were the final selected company. During the tender award process, our small company insisted that we needed 50% downpayment for the costs to pay supplier and other contractors etc. The Govt company indicated that we could get 50% downpayment only on condition if our company put up a Banker's Guarantee of that same 50%. The irony of it all, and I told the client, if we could ourselves put up 50% Banker's Guarantee (which is essentially a bank who will guarantee the 50% amount in the event of a default by our company) we would not have needed to ask for the downpayment !

Hence big projects and large tenders favour big companies with their strong balance sheets, huge corporate facilities and inhouse legal teams. Our small SMEs only have technical competancy, passion for doing the project and some get up gung ho !

We are definately at the disadvantage !

High Margin, Collect as Much as possible upfront, if not do a realist cost benefit analysis to see if indeed you are able to swallow payments of up to 50% of the project costs and waiting for over 1 year to collect back the costs once the project is finally signed off.

If the Risk is too High, Walk Away. It is easier to make money from low hanging fruits from regular paying customers than from one off big projects which only look good but do not fully pay the bills. Many companies go bust when they are doing fine, because of one of 3 factors:

a) Venture into totally new markets and get manipulated owing to political and Governmental change in rulings

b) Venture in totally unfamiliar industries in the name of Business Development

c) Stay stuck in the old 20th century way of doing things while most other more nimble companies have pivoted and gone into Digital Marketing and cast their nets worldwide.  

In Summary ; for jobs requiring Project Management :

1. Undercommit and Overdeliver to the Project. That means if your team can (safely) deliver and handover the project in 9 months, add another 25% to 30% lead time, so prooffer 12 months delivery and handover time. This eases pressure off your project team and you as the team lead.

2.  Be wary of the Hidden Turbulent Factor which may come in the form of a very finicky scientist, end user or senior management who will never show up in the discussion phase but will show up after everything is delivered and always make life difficult and downright distressing during the commissioning phase with his or her endless requirements for the 'perfect' equipment which they will never use 95% to 99% of the time. The 'just in case' specification is always the main contention point between the big client and small supplier. 

We as small vendors or suppliers want to quickly commission and handover the project so that we can collect all the sales revenue and move on to the next project. They, on the other hand have other things on their minds.....

3. Collect as Much Money Upfront - cover the cost of the equipment and then some. Whatever is 'stuck' is usually the tail end of the profit. 

Cashflow is No. 1 priority for companies to exist. 

Profitability is next. 

However collecting cash with no profit or loss making will run your ship aground. Be warned !

4. Complete the Handover as Quickly as Possible 

5. Have a Fine Balance of chasing High Profit and Good Cashflow from multiple customers - if that is possible.

Find such customers and stick to them like glue. A top customer is so hard to find ! 

6. Do a Risk Check every year and See if Storms are approaching.  

Sometimes, the boats in the harbour are spared the worst of the storm. 

Wishing One and All a Wonderful Year of the Water Tiger !

 

Here's wishing one and all, near and far a healthy, happy,prosperous, family strengthening and business uplifting Year of the Water Tiger !!  May all your goals, dreams, plans and hopes for this year of (hopefully) Post Covid come true in every way ! 

My wish for the 2022 Year of the Water Tiger ? Just an ordinary citizen's thoughts. 

1. No major wars between the superpowers, US, China and the Ukraine front de-escalates from its very tense standoff situation now.

2. US and China can somehow cooperate and reduce trade tensions and tariffs between them, so that we can all co-exist peacefully.

3. My son, Andrew to finish his Computer Science Degree in University of Queensland by this calendar year (2022) and come back to Singapore.

4. My business continues to strengthen its presence in the Lab Testing for Medical and Pharmaceutical space.

5. Our health for our family continues to be stable, and God willing, we can resume holiday travel in the second half of 2022.

6. Singaporeans of all ages, creeds and social status continue to strive for a 'One United People' and reduce any thoughts of Xenophobia as we once were a country of immigrants about 150 years ago. There should not be a 'them versus us' but a 'we'. 

6. Do more to help the disenfranchised in our society. I have often repeated it but this year I will do something. 

Xin Nian Kuai Le ! Wan Shi Ru Yi ! Bu Bu Gao Sheng, Sheng Yi Xin Rong !

                                    HUAT AH ! HUAT AH !

Why Do I Scribe ?

 A scribe is someone with a way with words. Somebody who can document the exact minutes of meetings or events which happened on the very day or somethings which happened recently. I am curious as to why I like to pen my thoughts to 'cyberspace'. Let me give several reasons :

1. I am worried that as I grow older, my memory will fade, and I will not have as good recollecting capabilities than when I was in my 40s, 50s and soon to be 60s. Hence the documentation of events relevant to me and people close to me. One day, when I have absolutely nothing better to do, I will scroll through and read the posts past up till the present day.I hope I can appreciate that my thoughts and writings have matured throughout the age from a young middle aged man at the age of 44, and moving swiftly in time to become a fully middle aged, young old man of 59. 

While many people rue the quick passage of time in their lives, they forget that in actual fact if you take the time to really appreciate time as a dimension, in fact it passes slowly. We busy ourselves with the work in our lives and the crises that inevitably come along the way makes us so absorbed in the all encompassing moment - that may last weeks, months or years.

When we look up and see, hey ! its almost February 2022, where did January go ? Its as if the passage of time speeds up when we are involved in things which we really take an interest in. 

Sp to fully appreciate time, I think it is better to take detached look at the event happening right before our eyes. BUT that is most times impossible not to be involved.

Perhaps if we move to another space time continuum, we can actually 'exist' but in a totally different realm (space time) and the 2 realms never actually meet. 

Till today, I have had this solo blog since May 2006 or a long 16 years. 

The event which catalysed the setting up of the blog was that fateful Sunday in June 2006 when I collapsed and I thought I was gone from this Earth. I had taken good health and the smooth passage of time in a very cavalier manner. I awoke to the fact that I will have a distinct end date in this realm and decided there and then to do something to acknowledge that I am alive, a person who has responsibilities, and has a genuine willingness to be as good a person that I can be. 

2. Its self expression, some people perform dance, some do martial arts, sing, play musical instruments the list goes on. I scribe, or write stories, in my own unique way. 

3. I am also cognizant that my life has passed by in a blink of an eye without proper reflection of the events notable, and most times mundane do not warrant a second thought. Time that has passed is gone. Events that were yesterday is history.

4. I guess my blog is another form of writing my early memoirs so that I can shout out to whoever who reads this way in the future as "Hey, there was this dude called Mark A." and he did these stuffs. A bit like the heiroglyphics in the tombs in Saccara, or Memphis, or  Xian.

5. Finally, it could possibly be an 'heirloom' for future generations of mine to read how interesting (or dreadfully boring) my life was in the last 20th Century and early 21st Century.

    My 5 simple reasons for scribing.  

                                                    Tuesday 25th January 2022

Errors in Making Money 101. When you make some, don't reinvest or try something else. Sometimes sitting on a pile of cash is the best option.

Recently, I saw some very honest videos of people who made some money in properties. This guy made some (small) investment into purchasing a condominium in Thailand, and in a short  while decided to reinvest his profits into buying his second property.

While his first made money, his second turned out to be the albatross around his neck.

Basically the couple worked for 5 years and saved. With that savings, they used the savings to look around for an investment property which they bought and paid the downpayment,stamp and legal fees etc. This first property was located near the center of Bangkok, near the BTS and was deemed as of good value, and the mortgage repayments were helped mainly because they found good tenants and the rental payment covered the mortgage payments.

Later, the first property appreciated in price, and they borrowed some more off the new increased valuation (bad move) and reinvested into another condominium with another developer in another part of Bangkok. They plonked their downpayment and made their progress payments for the yet to be built condominium (off plan purchase) as the prices dangled by the developer were pretty good.

The developer was late in the progress of the condominium. They ran into cashflow problems and went into bankruptcy. So, the couple were left scrambling to recover their losses from the second property - when COVID hit in 2020. Foreigners were leaving the country in droves due to lack of work and it was psychologically safer to ride out the pandemic in one's native land where the medical costs are normally 100% covered should one fall ill with COVID.  So their first investment property also went tenantless.

The couple were saddled with 2 mortgages and no incoming cash from any forseeable tenant. Luckily they both were still working, else it would have been a major catastrophe. After several months of desperate efforts, the husband managed to sell the first property for below valuation and clear both mortgages with interest and they left with no savings but were not in some big financial black hole.

Too many variables are at play here :

1.the developer's financial situation are unbeknownst to potential purchasers of condominium units. They can go bust. No one is deemed TOO BIG TO FAIL unless they were big banks in USA.     

2. Economy can often and takes a massive hit from Black Swan events like the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and COVID 19. Everything goes south and people are left without livelihoods, jobs and good health.

3. Authorities do not always work in tandem with developers ; do not assume that there will be no sudden change in foreigners' quotas to own property, loan to valuation ratios or other Government policy changes. Foreigners will always bear the brunt of Government's U Turns in policy involving properties. Take a look at Malaysian properties for example. 

4. In many democracies the Government changes every 4 to 5 years and policies go out the window.

Making money calls for a multitude of things to be all aligned at the same time.

1. The investor's cash must be the amount he is prepared to lose all or most of.

2. 90% of any business or investments go bust very soon. So do you know of anybody who has not lost any money in equities (all transactions net profit ?).

3. Luck plays a big part in making money. 

When you make the first decent amount. EXIT. Don't outsmart the market or competitors by staying longer than what is absolutely necessary. There are many hungrier, smarter and more desperate people than YOU. 

You invariably will lose more or all of your capital.  

The only way to leave a casino with a small fortune is to enter with a large one.

 

Wolves are on Fire

My First Trip Outside of Singapore will be after Chinese New Year

                                            Corniche Souk Doha, Taken 5 years ago