Confirmation Bias - 99% do it ; 1 % actually rise above it.

Confirmation Bias. This is so eloquently written by the psychologist Ralf Dobelli in his standout book "The Art of Thinking Clearly" which has been on the bestseller charts for years. A Swiss national by birth, I am very fascinated by this concept Confirmation Bias.

Essentially, many of us think we are very clever. Cleverer than the person next to you. If that is the case, what justifies the normal distribution curve (standard deviation) in society for IQ ? Or EQ for that matter. If everyone was so smart, there would be no 'ordinary people' in our midst.

Dobelli cited, this case of the professor who put this little experiment to a test. The esteemed professor wrote on the whiteboard the 3 numbers :

" 2 , 4 , 6 ... " 

and asked the class to do the following :

a) state the next number in the series

b) what was the basis or logic for their guess ?

He told the whole class that he had written down the basis or logic for the series of numbers.

So, 90% of the class wrote the number "8". The basis or logic for the next number was that the series was a linear arithmetic addition of 2 to the previous number.

The professor replied : "No" that was not correct.

Many in the class went " Huh ?"

We have been taught for years in primary and secondary schools arithmetic, calculus, algebra, integration and differentiation that we assume that these series are the be all the in the logical sequence of things.

Not true. 

Hence our Confirmation Bias is such that when confronted with a problem such as this, we are sure, cocksure of our theorems that it must be the correct answer - by all accounts, it may be. But it could be a subset of a much more complex or even simpler sequence.

However, as time goes by and the sequence gets expanded, we find out we are wrong and we fall flat in our face.

We all have this Confirmation Bias in our Minds. 

Answer

The logic in the Prof's mind was this " the next number must be higher than the previous one in the string"

Hence, 5,7, 10, 15 all qualifies as being correct. 

To Do 

Always fact check, and test out your theory with more data. If some doesn't fit your theory, Question your theory as being wrong. 

Many heads studying the approach and giving honest opinions MAY be better than just your own. It improves the chances of your theory ultimately being the right one.

So Question and find faults in your theory. After numerous iterations and more data, can you say, tentatively that it is correct. 

Don't let ego get the better of you. If you do, you ultimately FAIL.

  

My 10 Rules of life

Today's 8K run at ECP ; Selfie taken at Car Park at Finish

I am 9 months shy of turning or reaching the big sixth decade of my life. Lessons, I have learnt aplenty.

Takeaways, I have also had the opportunity of savouring what this life can offer, both the good, the bad and the ugly. I believe that to make our lives meaningful, we need purpose and a Raison D'ete to get ourselves out of bed every morning.

The challenge for 2022 for my business is to step up to be an SME of quality and reputation.

Personally, I hope that I can continue to stay focussed on my goals and not be too arrogant when things go my way, and not to lose heart when they don't. Planning, and execution require lots and lots of focus, brainstorming and luck. The more you try, the more lucky you get.

My 10 Rules 

1.   Have an audacious goal 

2.   Strive 110% to achieve it ; make sure it is realistic and doesn't break your piggy        bank.

3.   Learn from mistakes, yours and others.

4.   Don't make promises you cannot keep

5.   What you earn for the month, save at least 20%

6.   Help the less advantaged

7.   Be Humble

8.   Be Gutsy

9.   Get multiple streams of income 

10. Go Live Life. YOLO 

 

Tiger Year 1986 Uncirculated Coin Set - Singapore

 

Fast Paced Run today 6th Feb at Pandan Reservoir 6.30 pm

Today's run at Pandan Crescent was a very satisfying one for me from a few standpoints.

1. I have been feeling a little 'low' what with the lack of work from the 5 day break for the Chinese New Year.

2. This year is a breakthrough year, and I need to have all the energy, luck and wearwithall to push hard to achieve all the potential my company has shown and will continue to show in the coming weeks, months. It is a truly exciting, yet I need to be brave to take on ventures and manage the risk / opportunity properly. One mistake could ruin the whole decades long struggle for stability and profitability.   
 

3. Lately I have also felt that the call of age has been beckoning me. I am slowing, in terms of my metabolic rate, my stamina, strength, balance and flexibility are deteriorating - much to my dismay. This is life, as I age, I need to develop further a sense of humor so that I can age 'gracefully'. When I am ready to retire or hand over the reins, I wish that I can still enjoy a certain quality of life such as 

a) enjoying good meals with great company

b) savoring the scenery here and abroad. Nature has given us this Earth and we must stop terrorising it and making it unliveable.

c) Having a good laugh at myself and the world around me. Laughter is the best medicine for life.

d) Having the wits to fully appreciate humor, wisdom, deep intellectual stimuli, cut and thrust debates, sarcasm, irony, and appreciate the nuances of language.

e) Going to new places (my goal - another 30 more countries). I have visited or worked in about 40 countries at the last guess.  

f) Enjoy and savour new experiences. 

Life and the passage of time is zipping by. While I feel the aches and pains of my physical body, my mental and spiritual side remain strong and wanting uplift from time to time.

Giving back to society will be part of my plan for this Year of the Water Tiger.

I will live it with purpose.

Carpe Diem. 

Evening Walk at Roppongi Hills Tokyo June 2021

This is my attempt at sharing other people's videos with the intent of them doing the same to my Youtube videos one day. 

This is taken roughly 8 months back, during the height of the COVID 19 and people are seen (as in Singapore) wearing masks of all varieties and colours.

Enjoy this short 'tour'.

 

Accelerated Aging Tests for Medical Products

This is the video of QRA International Test Laboratory. The company provides accelerated aging for all kinds of test devices including medical products. Here is a view of one of our 2 Laboratories located in western part of Singapore.

Products manufactured in factories will normally have an expiry date set on their packaging. How do the manufacturers know whether their products can actually perform as well as when the day they were made in the factory ? They use stress screening techniques which are basically elevated temperatures and controlled humidities with some reference to the Arrhenius equation. The 'aging' of a product is essentially halves the expiry date for every 10 deg increase in temperature. So if the product is designed to last for 3 years, then for an expected storage life of 3 years, then if it is designed to sit in the store or clinic at 30 deg C (average), the elevated temperature of 40 will mean that the test needs to run for 36 /2 (divide by 2) or 18 months to achieve the same 'aging' than if it was at 30 deg C. At 50 deg C (or 20 deg C above 30), that same aging 'result' will only take 9 months or 18 / 2.

The 'aging' using elevated temperatures and humidities are well documented and recorded in ASTM standards for medical, electronic and pharmaceutical products and devices.

The subsequent tests to determine the extent of the 'aging' is company proprietary and the Lab has no stake in determining those effects.

 

 

Chinese New Year Blessings over the Loh Hei Dish

Here is the Yu Sheng Toss with the Chinese New Year 'Blessings'.  

Niece Barbara preparing for the Lo Hei greetings as she usually does every Chinese New Year