Dog and the Bone Game ; a game from my childhood, still played in India today

This game was very popular 'back in the day' when we were kids. I am happy to see that it is still being played in many parts of Asia, like India for one. The rules of the game are simple.

Form 2 teams of (for example) 5 people each. They will stand beside each other in one line facing each other. The 'bone' will be in the dead centre, ideally inside a circular 'ring'. Each kid is given a number from 1 to 5. You can make the 'bone' out of anything, some of us just used rolled up newspaper or a circular rubber toy for babies to chew on (This is ideally disused !). 

When both sides are ready and facing each other, the referee if there is one, calls the number and each team member with that number runs as fast to the 'ring' and tries to get the 'bone' without letting the opposing team member with the same number 'tag' you.

If you are (say) No. 3, you run and then prance around the circular 'ring'. The MAIN OBJECTIVE :

Try to distract the opponent and get the bone back to your team behind the line without him / her touching you.

If you are swift and nimble enough, you and your team wins 1 point.

The end of the game is when one team accumulates 10 points.

READY

SET 

PLAY !!! 

The Day US Decoupled the US Dollar from Gold Deposits and the Aftermath. Nixon's Madness

This article is copied from Nikkei Asia (25th August 2021) with reference to Mr. Masaki Shirakawa (ex-Bank of Japan) I do not own any rights to this article and is reprinted for my readers' understanding and enlightenment. 

This month marked the 50th anniversary of the "Nixon Shock," when U.S. President Richard Nixon decided to suspend the convertibility of foreign official holdings of dollar into gold, making now a worthwhile moment to look back on how it affected the global economy, ponder its historical importance and consider the challenges ahead. By suspending the dollar's convertibility into gold at a fixed price of $35 an ounce, and also imposing a surcharge on imports plus freezing wages and prices, 

Nixon precipitated the collapse of the postwar international monetary system known as the Bretton Woods agreement, leading to the start of the floating exchange rate system which has become norm ever since among the advanced economies. The economic rationale behind Nixon's decision was straightforward: With public finances in the U.S. deteriorating in the 1960s and 1970s, growing deficit on the balance of payments and a resulting gold flowing out of the country, the U.S. was approaching the point where it could not make good on its guarantee to convert its currency into gold. While it can be said that this decision was inevitable, it still deserves to be remembered as a shock -- it was a purely unilateral decision taken without consultation. "If historians search the precise date on which America's singular dominance of the world's economy ended, they might settle on August 15, 1971," noted Jeffrey E. Garten, author of the recently published Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy. 

Today, it is impossible to imagine a unilateral decision of this scale and global importance being made by any single country. It is true that there were shades of American unilateralism in the famous international policy coordination at the height of the Plaza and Louvre accords signed in the mid-1980s, but not on the same scale. But if we look specifically at the dollar itself, which was the very root of the problem in 1971, a different landscape has subsequently unfolded. The expected fall in the status of the dollar as an international key currency did not happen. The expected fall in the status of the dollar as an international key currency did not happen. © AP The function of a specific currency as a global currency can be measured by how widely it is used in foreign trade, international debt issuance and major international payment systems, and the degree to which it features in official foreign reserves. Looking at its global shares according to such measures, the dollar's status as the international key currency is not on a downward trend. Rather, it seems to have increased over the past decade, despite a decline in America's GDP share of the world economy. 

As globalization progresses, demand for the dollar has steadily increased, satisfied by the growing current-account deficit and corresponding net capital inflows to the U.S. Under the Bretton Woods system, the growing demand for dollars was satisfied by the widening U.S. balance-of-payments deficit, which put a strain on U.S. gold reserves. This vulnerable situation came to be called Triffin's dilemma, after the economist who identified it. What we are seeing now can be called a modern version of Triffin's dilemma. But a dilemma in what sense? The best way to answer this question is to think about whether the world is really able to enjoy the monetary policy freedom that was supposed to be enabled by a flexible exchange rate system.  

According to the famous dictum of "open economy trilemma," a country cannot enjoy the following three good things simultaneously: free capital movement, a fixed exchange rate and autonomous monetary policy. One has to be given up. Most advanced economies opted to pursue free capital movement and autonomous monetary policy by giving up fixed exchange rates. But today, judging from the interest rate configurations in many countries, nations are seemingly not enjoying autonomous monetary policy, with interest rates either at or near zero in all advanced economies. Is this because each individual country, from the bottom of its heart, wanted to set its interest rate at zero? That is probably true in the U.S., where the Federal Reserve believes zero interest rates are needed to regain policy room by ultimately increasing inflation expectations. 

How about the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan? Do they really believe zero percent is the most desirable for their own economies? Or, to put it differently, are they enjoying fully autonomous monetary policy? I guess the answer is yes and no. On the one hand, the thinking behind zero interest is the same for them as it is for the Fed. But on the other hand, given the Fed's policy stance they do not have much choice. Their main concerns for Europe and Japan seem to be about the possible exchange rate appreciation of their own currencies in case they raise interest rates. Ultimately, the influence of U.S. monetary policy has become stronger, not weaker. The choice for many countries -- at least for advanced countries -- is not a trilemma but a dilemma between free capital movement and autonomous monetary policy. Even in this case, we could imagine a situation in which losing monetary policy autonomy is justifiable, if the resulting global macroeconomic performance is reasonably satisfactory and if individual countries can benefit. In this light, how should we assess global macroeconomic performance, and for that matter the collective performance of monetary policy, in recent decades? 

Yes, there was a period called "the Great Moderation," but it was followed by the global financial crisis. The straightforward implication of suspending gold convertibility is that our monetary system has become truly a fiat money system, which means human wisdom is the only anchor of a currency's value. Fifty years on, the broader truth is that we still have not found how best to control money. This is still a journey in progress.

Life Tips from a Mentor

Roland Teo and I have been having lunches on a regular basis for the last 10 years or so, always at the same Crystal Cafe near his condominium at Merchant Road. He has been happily retired since 2016 and has never regretted a single day of his retirement to smell the roses and take things easy in his life.

A very established and accomplished banker, I always bounce ideas and thoughts with him and I have gained tremendous insight from a top level executive who has international foresight and is very forthright with his local and geopolitical views of the current Governments as well as overseas ones.

His take is very well thought through and he reads widely from many sources. 2 very wise and well experienced quotes come to mind which I have had the points hammered out so clearly from his helicopter viewpoint of managing hundreds of direct report over the last 30 years and also his experience on the board of several Government organizations with major revenue and profit reportings on a regular basis.

1. People are generally Lazy

Not all the people but easily 80% to 90% of the people want to cruise in their life. Everyone is entitled to how they want to live their life. But are they living their lives as subsisting or are they living to the best potential of their lives. Macchiavelli also stated that it is most important to evaluate how one lives and how one ought to live. There is a distinction between the 2 and many people - by choice or by non thinking cruise their way downhill to an ordinary and mundane life.

To work hard takes effort. To work hard and use all your talents to their fullest abilities takes

a) effort

b) purpose

c) getting out of one's comfort zone.

I am mindful of this, as I am at the last possible chance of making something of myself and my business, so everyday I go out there to be a better person than I was the day before and I try not to be lazy to take the path of least resistance.

2. People overestimate their abilities all the time   

A lot of people I know say they will ace this and ace that and make things happen, but when they don't they just fade into the background and slip into some kine of denial as to why things didnt pan out as they were supposed to be.

A lot of times it is due to a) poor planning and b) an overestimation of his or her own abilities.

The end result leads to the person getting a failure and making excuses for why it didnt succeed.

It takes a) collective effort of a team   b) admittance that there are people better than you in almost everything and c) putting in the long hours to see through their goals.

A Bonus Question : 

Are Leaders  made or  born ? 

I disagree, great leaders are born. Average leaders can be taught to behave like a leader.

My estimate from the current crop of incumbent ministers is that we sadly have average leadership in our Government, and our country as a whole can only move along with at best mediocre growth for the next  3 -  5 years

The truly great leaders all did not want to get involved in politics, and as a result we have this lot who are governing us. 

The time between now (2022) and the next elections will be difficult for many of us. There are so many challenges we ordinary citizens are facing it is indeed scary.

  

Rest - Most Important Aspect for a Fulfilling Day

Recently I have come down with a 'flu bug. I believe it is not COVID having taken to ART Nasal Swabs and both are negative. My first instinct was to 'keep calm and carry on'. However, I realised that this is the first time in over 2 years that I have had anything 'serious'. Even when I caught COVID in Nov 2021, it was very mild compared to this.

My symptoms are (to date) : 

a) slightly red eyes with eye dirt. 

b) sore throat

c) slight irritating cough (well under control).

So, I have taken refuge again and am back to my 'man cave' attic for the next couple of days.

A lot of us underestimate the need for adequate rest, and I am really guilty of this. My optimal sleep duration is 8 hours and of late, have been subsisting on 6 hours or so for weeks. My aim is to rest, let the body fully recover and stress less.

Do the things I really enjoy (not exercise at least for the next week) such as :

a) Preparing for my annual holidays with my wife.

b) Mind games (Sudoku, and Circuit Breaker)

c) Flying my drone

c) Cycling

There is enough work for 5 days out of the 7 to keep my team and I busy. The other 2 days are meant literally for rest, recuperation and reflection.

Carpe Diem  

Saturday 16th July

3.36 pm

SINGAPORE 

EST : +7 HR.

My Newest Hobby - Drone Flying

I bought my first drone about a month back. This is in anticipation for my annual holiday with my wife May to Greece and Italy. Drone photos and videos enhance the enjoyment of the trip, and I have been dilligently practising the flight of this 4 propellered device, much to my heart's content.

The only other time I can recall when I tried to fly a model airplane was when I was in Primary 6, this was probably in 1974. My father, Geoffrey, had bought this lovely petrol Spitfire model which came with its own landyard and I didint dare to fly in in the park near my house in Adis Road. Along came this brave and foolhardy friend of mine called Percy (he has now since migrated to Australia) and between the both of us, managed to get the propeller fired up, and with Percy at the reins, he got the plane up for approximately 6 seconds, before it crashed and broke into 3 pieces in the field near my house. So much disappointment 48 years ago and I still remembered the look on his and my face - to this day.

Fast forward to 2022, and I am now  the pilot of my own 249 g drone. The brand is DJI and there are regulations requiring drone owners to register their aircraft if they are of a certain weight category (250 g and more). So my DJI mini 2 just falls under the radar and I am a 'happy camper' just playing with the controls every 2 - 3 days to my hearts content  and I am transported back to the day when I am a schoolboy all of 12 years old in 1974 !

 

What do I think of when I run ? Below is an Example

 This is an very interesting question which I do ask myself from time to time. Do I go into a 'robot mode' and just switch off everything or do I let some thoughts invade into the idyllic zonal spaceout state of mind which sometimes freaks me out at the sheer clarity of thought ? The 'Aha moment' which only comes when I am is truly at peace with myself and shut out everything ?

                                               My 8 K run last year on my birthday 

The answer is a bit of both. To be frank, when I set out, I actually zone out and focus on 2 aspects of my self. 

a) My breathing.

I usually start out the run by concentrating on my breathing ensuring that each breath is measured and I am amazed by the fresh air I can actually intake. I breathe deeply to the extent that my lungs ache. Which is a good thing, in my opinion. We, so often, take for granted our ability to do the simple task of breathing that when you focus on it, you actually appreciate the one of 3 organs which fundamentally keeps us alive (the other 2 being the heart and brain). 

b) My legs.

I have always had strong and stiff legs. They have been both my boon and my bane. They were and still are very strong. I always thought I had iron legs. In my teenage years, my swim club mates called be "Stiff Austin" (a joke about the 6 Million Dollar Man Steve Austin who had bionic lags haha) because well my legs were really stiff and hard. I recall playing football in the courtyard of the Club way back in the mid 70s and I didn't wear shoes.

So one time, I recall, I kicked hard at the rubber ball at the goal, and MISSED. Instead, my leg kicked the huge exposed root of the 160 year old tree. The bark of the tree actually came off and my leg though sore, was still intact.

Thats how strong my legs were !

After the first 2 things are settled, I will just go into a Zen Like Zone and run without paying much attention to my surroundings. However, as the kms go by my mind will start to wander and normally things so random will just pop into the mindfulness zone.

Here is one such thought. I dreamt up a decision tree process while I was running. Only today 10th July have I had the courage to write it down.

Please take a look at my innermost thoughts when I run.

In a nutshell, running on a Saturday leaves me happy, and ecstatic. So I will run based on my decision tree logic as shown above.  

 

What Drives Me to wake up and Go Out and Do What I am tasked to Do ?

 Almost 2 years ago, I went through this course 

"Skills Business and Digital Transformation Programme" by the SMU Academy.

With the completion of this course, I had many revelations about myself. I realised that I was indeed the master of my own destiny and my company, my relationships and my own being were truly being impacted by my mindset. So if I wanted to 'cruise' along in life, then I would surely have achieved nothing significant when my life ends.

What Drives Me ? What makes me get up every morning and want to do the things I want to do ? I thought long and hard about my life up to that very point in August 2020. 

This Picture Below :

   L to R  : Yours Truly ; Richard Pereira, Philip Lim Feng, Sukhdeep     Singh,  Jaspal Singh (taken on the night we beat NUS Team 2 in the Semifinals)

This one above is the University debate team from the NTI (Nanyang Tehcnological Institute) where we reached the finals in late Oct 1986 and defeated NUS Team 2, S'pore Polytechnic and Institute of Education (trainee teachers college back then). The event was the SBC 12 channel of televised debates which were telecast 1 week after the studio debates and it pitted all the Institutes of HIgher Learning from NUS, NTI, the Polytechnics, the Teachers Training Institutes.

NTI'e debating team comprised 4 main speakers who were :

1. Yours Truly (1st Speaker)

2. Richard Pereira (2nd Speaker)

3. Jaspal Singh (3rd Speaker)

4. Philip Lim Feng (4th Speaker)

Reserve : Sukhdeep Singh.

Well the history states that the NTI being only a 3 year combined  Engineering faculties actually managed to reach the finals, along the way, we beat

a) Teachers Training Institute

b) NUS Team 2 (all lawyers)

The finals was an edgy affair, and we were up against the best debating team in the country made up of all lawyer undergraduates, NUS Team 1. The result :

a) Best Speaker of Night - Philip Lim

b) Best Speaker of Series - Jaspal Singh

c) Best Team - NUS Team 1

The sense of injustice was palpabe, but we took the loss with diginity and carried our selves right till the end. 

The then President of NTI was so pleased he actually hosted a dinner for the 4 of us, and made us VIPs.

We had put NTI on the map.

Fast forward 36 years, and 2022, I have kept tabs of my old debating mates.

a) Jaspal Singh - Founder and CEO of SIS International (largest international School in Indonesia and winner of Financial Times Educator of Year).

b) Philip Lim - ex BG of Army, CEO of Exploit Technologies. Also former CEO of Singapore Food Industries, and CTO of another Govt Laboratory during COVID 19.

c) Richard Pereira - ex BG of Air Force and now a successful consultant for the air industry.

My 3 mates have done VERY WELL for themselves.

I am the Underachiever of this high performing bunch and I owe it to myself to make a name of myself in whatever I do, in the past and going forward. If I can at least garner some of their achievements (50%) I would be well satisfied.

Thats why I am pushing day in and day out for QRA to expand internationally for the next 5 to 10 years.

That is What Drives Me Every Day..........