Sunday, June 10, 2018

Income Inequality ; longer lives and Money (or lack of)

The fact of income inequality is staring at us in the face. We live in the post 2008 great (American) recession where virtually every job is now potentially replaceable by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the supposed Singapore dream of 5 Cs (I hate reference to this as this is actually all based on materialism) is getting harder and harder to achieve.

The new reality is disruption, from jobs to business opportunities to Governments, every country is facing a new reality of unhappy voters who have grouses mainly due to Government debt, income inequality and longer working lives. I did not sign up for this !

In the 20th century, the primary goal of parents in Singapore was to get their children a better life, and that meant education, at least to the highest potential, when their lives were either disrupted by  the 2nd world war, then post war poverty, the breakway from Malaysia, and the threat of civil unrest due to lack of jobs, poverty, communist factions in our country and even racial unrest (Confrontation). 

Thanks to the late LKY, a great statesman and leader, we have overcome all of that and within 1 generation (about 25 years), have become a First World Country having many firsts.




The suits and their money 


Since 2015, and the last election, there have been voices of many who are disheartened by the plight of many ordinary Singaporeans whose lives have been 'left behind' by the mad rush of the new disruptive work which has unsettled many people in their 40s, 50s and beyond. Gone are the supposedly stable jobs created in the 80s and early 90s by manufacturing ; gone are the dot com and post 2000s semiconductor jobs. In its place is the new scarcer jobs in R & D, pharmaceuticals, life sciences and Fintech (Financial Technology) ; Many of these back-room work is done by the supposed 'foreign talents' who are working longer hours, for cheaper pay and complain less.

What then for the 3rd  and 4th Generation of Singaporeans, the Millenials (born in 90s and early 2000s and Gen Xers born after that) ? Education while still important is NOT  the primary factor for success. On top of that, there is the Income Inequality which is all apparent between the Haves and and the Have Nots. The Haves are : The 1st and 2nd Generation who have invested in private properties have suddenly got cash windfalls from en-bloc sales, the foreign investors turned Singapore PRs and new citizens who have made their monies in other countries and of course the highly paid ministers of the ruling Government.  These are the 5 to (max) 10%.

The Have Nots are the rank and file people who slog day in and day out and hold up the economy. The teachers, military people, the many thousands of housing, insurance agents who try their hardest to make a sale in this tepid economy. The former PMETs who were retrenched in the last 5 - 10 years who now struggle to make a living as first UBER, then GRAB car drivers, the security guards and the numerous people who live day by the eking out an existence doing whatever it takes to survive. They form easily the 90%. 


We do not have the slums but the struggle is daily 



The daily life is getting harder. Fewer people want or need to drive cars (most expensive place in the world to purchase a car, thanks to this system implemented 28 years ago called the Certificate of Entitlement or COE which people through their car agents have to bid for this piece of paper which entitles them to buy a new car ). Currently it stands at 38,000 and added to the additional registration fee of another 30,000 to 50,000, a simple Toyota Corolla Altis will cost approximately S$ 90,000 or US$ 65,000. Roughly 3 times that of this same car in the USA !

On top of that there is the ERP or Electronic Road Pricing which taxes road users based on location and overuse. Hence every day inside the Central Business District, there is taxes of easily S$ 3 for cars to drive through the roads for work. Hence many people either give up or don't own cars and thus take the public transport.

Public transport is actually very efficient, and economical too. So the plus point is that the connectivity for most office workers inside the CBD or even outside where many IT or industrial estates (Alexandra Business Park or Changi Business Park) is pretty OK ; but I am one of the privileged guys who drives to work. The morning crush hour is no fun as trains are packed and the MRT breakdowns are a major cause of complaints and anger ever so often when they breakdown.

So public housing, or HDB prices are still affordable for new flats. The only downside is that it is 99 years leasehold, while there will be price increases during the growth years, the reality is that resale flats in mature estates on the whole in Singapore has been going downhill for almost 5 quarters or 1 year and 3 months. This reflects the sentiment that the economy is not doing very well. 

Coupled that with the news that the car COE prices have been sliding for the last 2 - 3 years and you get the picture that all is not well in the heartlands. PMETs have to resort to driving GRAB cars, young Singaporeans have to be Food Panda and UBER Eats delivery men and the women have to be nursing assistants or tutors. At least we are still vibrant enough where our able bodied young men and women are working in the Digital Economy of today in Singapore. There are millions of displaced Fillipino, Thai, Chinese, Indian, Bangladesh, Vietnamese men and women all over Asia. doing the hardest of jobs.  

Of course if the young man or woman was a scholar, or high scoring individual from the top 3 Universities things are better. But then again, the Government's drive to attract so many foreign students from China, India and the West has raised the bar so high that our poor Singaopore sons and daughters are losing out in terms of higher education locally and job prospects. 

Fertility rate is at an all time low. Meaning people are not replacing themselves, for many reasons I gather, one big factor is economic and the stressful life here does not engender young people to get married, get a flat and have kids. It takes 2 working professionals jobs to just about manage an HDB flat, possibly a 2nd hand car and the rest of the earnings go to tuition, day care, the maid, groceries and the occasional dining out. 

Most of the young people take out their hard earned CPF savings for the housing and the risk awaiting many people upon reaching 55 or 62 is that there is hardly any money left as it is all gone into the housing ; so what awaits many Baby Boomers (those born from 1950 to 1975 or so) is practically nothing. That being the case, Singapore will be facing a situation where many people are 'downgrading' their homes once they realise that they are living longer (our life expectancy is at least 82 years or longer) and have no more disposable income to live even the simplest of lives. Coupled with more and more silver haired Singaporeans, there will be even more demands to the Govenment, from these educated old folk (I am on the cusp of it, maybe in about 9 years time - it is a sobering thought) to provide for their Golden Years. No Government can just abandon the people who have put their entire lives contributing to the well being of our nation.

While it is well and good to be mobile and have a cup of Kopi at the void deck ; having friends is all important, and the occasional trips abroad to Asia, Australasia, Europe and US is the icing on the cake ; IF we can afford them. Many people still cannot due to dwindling savings and the ever rising costs of living. 

Tough times here. And getting tougher. The people in power, or the 4G need to understand this.   






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